Tuesday 30 October 2007

Comment:Extraordinary Rendition-Is there an ethical case?

With Hollywood giving its ‘verdict’ on the ‘War on Terror’ I thought it might be high time to take a closure look at ‘Extraordinary Rendition’ and canvas opinion on what libertarian and centre right thinking is.

In fact the practice of Extraordinary Rendition is nothing new. The British Government often carried out kidnappings in the Republic of Ireland against key IRA personnel who had escaped legal rendition. The US first documented usage was against the hijackers of the Achille Lauro in 1985, with a US Navy jet forcing down a flight to land at Naval Air Station Sigonella and then rendered the hijackers to the United States. Other states that have also used this power are: China, South Korea, Russia, North Korea, Cuba, France, Israel and a number of Middle Eastern and African countries.

Many countries have also benefited from the intelligence that has been gained from the interrogation of prisoners that have been captured under extra judicial kidnappings including the EU and its institutions (the main Governmental critics of the US use of ER.)

What is often forgotten is that the Clinton Administration first brought in the law as this rather revealing piece by Richard Clark, counter-terrorism czar in the Clinton and Bush Administrations shows:

“‘Extraordinary renditions’ were operations to apprehend terrorists abroad, usually without the knowledge of and almost always without public acknowledgement of the host government…. The first time I proposed a snatch, in 1993, the White House Counsel, Lloyd Cutler, demanded a meeting with the President to explain how it violated international law. Clinton had seemed to be siding with Cutler until Al Gore belatedly joined the meeting, having just flown overnight from South Africa. Clinton recapped the arguments on both sides for Gore: Lloyd says this. Dick says that. Gore laughed and said, 'That's a no-brainer. Of course it's a violation of international law, that's why it's a covert action. The guy is a terrorist. Go grab his ass.'”

Richard Clarke, Enemies pp143–4

One can’t help thinking that this is the same Al Gore that has just got a Nobel Peace Prize.

Since 9/11 The Bush administration has increased its usage and allowed prisoners to be removed to black sites-covert sites where it is alleged torture is used to extract information.

The arguments FOR the use of Extraordinary Rendition are powerful:

The country where a suspect is held might be linked to the terrorist group and beyond the ‘normal’ reach of legal and diplomatic channels. For example capturing wanted war criminals in Serbia, Bosnia or Croatia
It may well be an advantage to interrogate a prisoner in his own country of origin where s/he would be familiar with the language, customs and a tradition of that country for example Al Qaeda uses Middle Eastern operatives.
The intelligence gained would not only benefit the nation rendering the capture, but the domestic intelligence agency carrying out the interrogation and third parties.
The ‘ticking bomb’ scenario. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethical_arguments_regarding_torture
To prevent unnecessary press intrusion that may effect how a case is prosecuted

The arguments AGAINST are equally powerful:

There is no legal or ethical oversight
It may well damage the reputation and relationship between the parties
The action itself may be dangerous or can expose the country carrying out the action to unwanted press and media attention if it becomes a failed operation.
The intelligence gain may not reflect the cost and effort put into the operation
It is again ‘international’ agreements and laws

Rather than lay out an argument, here is a scenario in which we can ponder:

A ‘war criminal’ takes refuge in country X and is granted diplomatic protection and is considered a ‘rogue state’. Country Y wants to prosecute the individual for war crimes and Country Z wants information on intelligence on weapons shipments including chemical transfers and nuclear material that might be in the hands of terrorists. As leader of Country Z would you authorize the use of Rendition-especially if Country Y uses torture to extract information and confessions?

Unlike Pallywoods ‘cardboard cutout world’ these are real world problems. Do you have a duty to protect your country or do you remain ethical and uphold international law? Will people die at a later date because of your inaction? Will the press find out? Will it cause diplomatic problems? Will you loose the greater battle of ‘hearts and minds’?

Friday 26 October 2007

News:Rice Stands By Sanctions On Iran

Source:Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Friday defended expanded U.S. sanctions on Iran.

"The international community cannot just sit idly by until we face unpalatable choices. A nuclear weapon in the hands of the Iranian regime would be deeply destabilizing in the world's most volatile region," she told the NBC ‘Today’ show.

The United States on Thursday slapped new sanctions on Iran and accused its Revolutionary Guard of spreading weapons of mass destruction. However President Vladimir Putin criticized the move, saying it would force Tehran into a corner over its nuclear program.

Ms Rice acknowledged that Washington and Moscow had some disagreement over tactics and timing regarding Iran, but she said the two countries shared the same basic goal of a non-nuclear Iran.

Some U.S. allies and Democratic critics of President Bush's policies say Washington is being too bellicose.

Knowledge: Who Are Al Qods And The Baseej?

Source:GlobalSecurity

The Pasdaran has maintained an intelligence branch to monitor the regime's domestic adversaries and to participate in their arrests and trials. The Baseej (volunteers) come under the control of the Revolutionary Guards. The Baseej allegedly also monitor the activities of citizens, and harass or arrest women whose clothing does not cover the hair and all of the body except hands and face, or those who wear makeup.

During the year ending in June 1995, they reportedly "notified 907,246 people verbally and issued 370,079 written notices against ‘social corruption’ and arrested 86,190 people, and also broke up 542 ‘corrupt gangs’, arresting their 2,618 members, and seized 86,597 ‘indecent’ videocassettes and photographs.

The Ashura Brigades force was reportedly created in 1993 after anti-government riots erupted in various Iranian cities and it consists of 17,000 Islamic militia men and women. The Ashura Brigades are reportedly composed of elements of the Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran) and the Baseej volunteer militia.

In August 1994, some Pasdaran units, rushed to quell riots in the city of Ghazvin, 150 km. west of Tehran, reportedly refused orders from the Interior Minister to intervene in the clashes, which left more than 30 people dead, 400 wounded and over 1,000 arrested.

Subsequently, senior officers in the army, air force and the usually loyal Islamic Revolutionary Guard reportedly stated that they would no longer order their troops into battle to quell civil disorder.

The foreign operations by the Guardians, which also encompass the activities of Hizballah and Islamic Jihad – are usually carried out through the Committee on Foreign Intelligence Abroad and the Committee on Implementation of Actions Abroad. The Qods (Jerusalem) Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is responsible for extraterritorial operations, including terrorist operations. A primary focus for the Qods Force is training Islamic fundamentalist terrorist groups.

Currently, the Qods Force conducts training activities in Iran and in Sudan. The Qods Force is also responsible for gathering information required for targeting and attack planning. The Pasdaran has contacts with underground movements in the Gulf region, and Pasdaran members are assigned to Iranian diplomatic missions, where, in the course of routine intelligence activities they monitor dissidents. Pasdaran influence has been particularly important in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.

The largest branch of Pasdaran foreign operations consists of approximately 12,000 Arabic speaking Iranians, Afghans, Iraqis, Lebanese shi’ites and North Africans who trained in Iran or received training in Afghanistan during the Afghan war years. Presently these foreign operatives receive training in Iran, Sudan and Lebanon, and include the Hizballah ["Party of Allah"] intelligence, logistics and operational units in Lebanon.

The second largest Pasdaran foreign operations relates to the Kurds (particularly Iraqi Kurds), while the third largest relates to the Kashmiri’s, the Balouchi’s and the Afghans.

The Pasdaran has also supported the establishment of Hizballah branches in Lebanon, Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan and Palestine, and the Islamic Jihad in many other Moslem countries including Egypt, Turkey, Chechnya and in Caucasia.

The Office of Liberation Movements has established a Gulf Section tasked with forming a Gulf Battalion as part of the Jerusalem Forces. In April 1995 a number of international organizations linked to international terrorism -- including the Japanese Red Army, the Armenian Secret Army, and the Kurdistan Workers' Party -- were reported to have met in Beirut with representatives of the Iraqi Da'wah Party, the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain, Hizballah, Iran's "Office of Liberation Movements," and Iran's Guardians of the Revolution.

In January of 2002 - Israeli forces seized a Tonga-registered vessel, and found onboard 83 canisters - which were hidden in crates and among other cargo - and filled with 50 tons of weapons - including surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank mines. Intelligence reports indicate the likely involvement of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in facilitating this large arms transfer to other terrorist groups.

Although Iran detained al-Qaida operatives in 2003, it refused to identify senior members in custody. Tehran continued to encourage anti-Israel activities, both operationally and rhetorically, providing logistic support and training to Lebanese Hizballah and a variety of Palestinian rejectionist groups.

Shortly after the fall of Saddam Hussein, individuals with ties to the Revolutionary Guard may have attempted to infiltrate southern Iraq, and elements of the Iranian Government have helped members of Ansar al-Islam transit and find safehaven in Iran. In a Friday Prayers sermon in Tehran in May 2003, Guardian Council member Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati publicly encouraged Iraqis to follow the Palestinian model and participate in suicide operations against Coalition forces.

Anonymous sources in the Israeli defense establishment said that Iranian involvement in terrorism in the occupied territories has increased. These activities mostly are run through Hizballah in Lebanon and, between 2002 and 2004 Hizballah had tripled or even quadrupled the scope of its operations in the territories. The threat to Israel from rockets provided to Hizballah by Iran and Syria has grown, both in range and quantity.

Also See SPECIAL AND IRREGULAR ARMED FORCES in IRAN - A Country Study (Library of Congress Federal Research Division)

Knowledge: Who Are The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp?


Pasdaran military display taken recently (Source Unknown)



Source:GlobalSecurity

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or Pasdaran was formed following the Islamic Revolution of 1979 in an effort to consolidate several paramilitary forces into a single force loyal to the new regime and to function as a counter to the influence and power of the regular military.

The 125,000 strong Revolutionary Guard secures the revolutionary regime and provides training support to terrorist groups throughout the region and abroad. Both the regular military [the Artesh] and IRGC are subordinate to the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL).

Although the IRGC operates independently of the regular armed forces, it is often considered to be a military force in its own right due to its important role in Iranian defense. The IRGC consists of ground, naval, and aviation troops which parallel the structure of the regular military. From the beginning of the new Islamic regime, the Pasdaran (Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Islami, or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or Revolutionary Guards) functioned as a corps of the faithful. Its role in national security evolved from securing the regime and eliminating opposition forces to becoming a branch of the military establishment.

As a means of countering the threat posed by either the leftist guerrillas or the officers suspected of continued loyalty to the shah, however, Khomeini created the Pasdaran, designated as the guardians of the Revolution.

History

Initially the Pasdaran was planned as an organization that would be directly subordinate to the ruling clerics of the Revolution. By September 1980, the Pasdaran was capable of deploying forces at the front. Initially, the forces were sent to conduct operations against Kurdish rebels, but before long they were deployed alongside regular armed forces units to conduct conventional military operations. Despite differences, the Pasdaran and the regular armed forces have cooperated on military matters.

Since 1979 the Pasdaran has undergone fundamental changes in mission and function. Some of these changes reflected the control of the Islamic Republican Party (IRP) (until its abolition in 1987) over both the Pasdaran and the Crusade for Reconstruction. Others reflected the IRP's exclusive reliance on the Pasdaran to carry out certain sensitive missions. The Pasdaran, with its own separate ministry until 1989, evolved into one of the most powerful organizations in Iran. Not only did it function as an intelligence organization, both within and outside the country, but it also exerted considerable influence on government policies. In addition to its initial political strength, in the course of several years the Pasdaran also became a powerful military instrument for defending the Revolution and Islamic Iran.

The Pasdaran was also given the mandate of organizing a large people's militia, the Basij, in 1980. It is from Basij ranks that volunteers were drawn to launch "human wave" attacks against the Iraqis, particularly around Basra.

The first operations commander of the Pasdaran was Abbas Zamani (Abu Sharif), a former teacher from Tehran. The Pasdaran was quite active in Lebanon. By the summer of 1982, shortly after the second Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Pasdaran had nearly 1,000 personnel deployed in the predominantly Shia Biqa Valley. The Pasdaran's alleged involvement in anti-American terrorism in Lebanon remained difficult to confirm.

From modest beginnings, the Pasdaran became a formidable force. Under the command of Mohsen Rezai, the Pasdaran became large enough to match the strength of the regular military. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in 1986 the Pasdaran consisted of 350,000 personnel organized in battalion-size units that operated either independently or with units of the regular armed forces. In 1986 the Pasdaran acquired small naval and air elements, and it has claimed responsibility for hit-and-run raids on shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Although little was known about the Ministry of the Pasdaran, its intelligence-gathering operations, and its relationship with SAVAMA, several reports speculated that the Pasdaran maintained an intelligence branch to spy on the regime's adversaries and to participate in their arrests and trials. Khomeini implied Pasdaran involvement in intelligence when he congratulated the Pasdaran on the arrest of Iranian communist Tudeh leaders

With the abolition of the IRP in 1987, observers were uncertain whether the Pasdaran would continue to enjoy unlimited support from high-ranking clerics. Its power base remained strong in 1987, with the continuing support of Khomeini and other religious authorities. Having eliminated armed leftist groups such as the Mojahedin and the Fadayan, the Pasdaran had fulfilled all IRP expectations .Staunchly religious, nationalistic, and battle-trained since 1980, the Pasdaran had emerged as a critical force in determining Iran's national security strategy. In a post-Khomeini era, the Pasdaran could wield enormous power to approve or disapprove governmental changes.

The IRGC's active involvement in domestic politics began following Ayatollah Khomeini's death in 1989. Using the experience it gained in carrying out large projects during the war with Iraq, the corps has become a force in Iran's economy by launching numerous companies. Many of these enterprises receive lucrative government contracts and are active in the agriculture and oil sectors, on road and dam construction, and in automobile manufacturing. In addition, former IRGC commanders run the Oppressed and Disabled Foundation, an extremely powerful and wealthy organization that takes care of underprivileged Iranians.

In the 1990s some IRGC commanders denounced then-President Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani's political, social, and economic reforms as damaging to the values of the revolution. Following the 1999 student riots, some hard-line elements of the IRGC warned Khatami that his reforms were endangering the revolutionary order and that the IRGC could not stand by and watches as the fruits of the revolution were destroyed. As a result, these IRGC officers said, they essentially had no alternative than to intervene to uphold the interests of the Islamic regime. In a letter to Khatami, 24 IRGC commanders stated that they would take the law into their own hands unless the president cracked down on demonstrators.

By 2005 the IRGC's long reach into political affairs was increasingly apparent. Iran's parliament included about 80 former IRGC members, while other former members command the regular army and the national police. Still more occupy important civilian and government positions, such as municipal councilors, mayors, provincial governors, university professors, and businessmen. And possibly most significant, none other than the country's new president -- Mahmud Ahmadinejad -- served with the IRGC during the Iran-Iraq War.

In many respects that structure of the Pasderan has similarities to other Para-military organisations throughout history with its encroachment into the nation. It serves in a similar manner as the KGB in the Soviet Union and the SS Nazi Germany-having the characteristics of a state within a state.





Comment:US & Iran-The Ticking Time Bomb

The 'Great Prophet' Exercise in November 2006 (Source:FAS)


Source:FAS and BBC Middle East

“Iran has responded defiantly to new sanctions imposed by the US targeting Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and three state-owned banks.”

The BBC in it ‘analysis’ regards the latest bout of US diplomatic pressure on the Iran as another step towards war.

In its article the BBC seems to regard the latest moves by the US administration as ‘hostile’ devoting much of its piece towards the Iranian response. According to The BBC correspondent in Tehran, Jon Leyne, says the sanctions could be very damaging for Iran economically. The Revolutionary Guards are thought to control around a third of the country's economy, including car factories, newspapers and oil and gas fields.

Indeed they may well do but it will also strengthen the IRGC control over the Government.

This 'anti-war' and 'anti-American' view is echoed by the “commentary” on HYS-the BBC’s own interactive website mainly by the increasingly anti-American British

“On the day that Bush asks the world to help overthrow Communism in Cuba (again), and sanctions are announced against Iran for - just maybe, possibly - wanting to acquire 3 or 4 of what Israel's got 200+ of, and the USA's got 7000+ of, perhaps it's time for the rest of the World to just stop listening to arrant hypocrisy disguised as righteousness”

“Iran has caused the deaths of many USA and UK soldiers in Iraq.
Paul Butler, Reading, United Kingdom
Where is the proof? Are you going to start thinking for yourself and making your own judgment, or simply echo the un-proven assumptions coming from War loving generals and politicians for yet another disaster in the region (which by the way, this time, its going to be the real cause of death of thousands of US/UK soldiers)? I say we have caused enough misery for that region, lets get out!!”

Such ‘populist’ opinion (at the moment) seems to be missing some obvious points-as those more familiar with Iran will understand. The fact Iran is not hiding its ambitions and could be in a period known as a ‘transition to war’:

-The IRGC has now being purged of all ‘suspect elements’ and is now taking the leading edge in ‘strengthening’ Iranian defences.

-The capture of Al Quds personnel by Iraqi, British, American security forces in the last year.

-The recent display of Shehab-3 (Range 1280 KM/800 Miles) confirms that Iran has now significant Ballistic Missile capability. Western analysis also believes the Shehab-5 and Shehab-6 (based on North Korea’s Taep'o-dong-2 Range: 4,000-4,300 Km) may also be on-line although there is no firm information yet.



Shehab3 and 3b SLBM on recent display in Tehran (Source:FAS)

-The recent crackdown on ‘pro-Western’ and ‘anti-social elements’ within Iraq by Baseej Security Forces.

-The rationing of petrol and other non-essential materials

-The provocation by the IRGC during the ‘Frightened 15’ episode.

-The continuing non compliance with the IAEA inspections.

-The 10 day ‘Great Prophet’ Exercise in November 2006 with test launches of SLBM's

Objectively Iran is preparing for some sort of military confrontation, either with Israel or the Western Alliance. The one calculation that seems to be overlooked is the Iran is well aware of the political and psychological problems within the West’s key players-the US and the UK.

The US is currently starting its electoral process with Democrats and Republicans neither wishing to get involved further in a military confrontation with all the uncertainty that goes with that. Further more the Bush Administration is winding down and has used it’s up its political capital on Iraq and Afghanistan.

The British Government is in a period of flux,with Brown in a weak position,and with the self inflicted wound of Intelligence Debarcle, coupled with the prevalent anti-American mood by some sections of the public and media has left the UK in no mood for more military activity.It hasn’t got the military or political capital to do so although British Forces in theatre are directly threatened.

Israel is still licking its wounds after it apparent ‘defeat’ by Hezbollah and only France seems to be moving in the direction of a more robust position.

The IRGC will be more than aware of this-it is possible that there may well be a dramatic escalation during the Presidential Race. It cannot also be discounted that the recent attacks by the PKK may well involve Al Qods forces providing logistic and intelligence support, Turkey being a main ally of Isreal in the region.

The irony is that it may not be President Bush who needs to confront the final showdown that started with 9/11-but the very critics who have been grandstanding. Let’s hope they have a policy to deal with it or the Middle East will be very quite for the next 500 years.



Source:FAS

Wednesday 24 October 2007

Turkey Attacks PKK Positions Inside Iraq

Source:Reuters

Turkish warplanes and troops attacked Kurdish rebels inside Northern Iraq this week, security sources said on Wednesday.

Turkey moved more troops to the mountainous border, keeping up pressure on the Iraqi Government to honour promises to crack down on an estimated 3,000 rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) who use the region as a base.

"Further 'hot pursuit' raids into northern Iraq can be expected, though none have taken place so far today (Wednesday)," a military official said. "We are reinforcing our troops near the border at Silopi and Uludere with men drawn from other parts of the country,"

Thirty four PKK rebels were killed in the sorties and all Turkish troops involved in the operations were now inside Turkey. Turkish military sources claimed.
But Abdul Rahman Jaderji, a PKK spokesman in northern Iraq, told Reuters there had been no direct fighting between the two sides since clashes on Sunday in which 12 soldiers were killed.

However Ankara wants to hold back from any major incursion for now to give diplomacy a chance. The Turkish official described as a "final chance" for diplomacy a planned visit by an Iraqi delegation to Ankara on Thursday. At Turkey's request, the team will be headed by Iraqi Defence Minister General Abdel Qader Jassim. It will also include Iraq's National Security Minister Shirwan al Waeli.

"The prime minister has indicated this meeting could produce economic sanctions, for example, cutting off electricity to northern Iraq or the closure or slowing down of traffic at the Habur border gate," said Suat Kiniklioglu, an AK Party spokesperson said

Northern Iraq depends heavily on Turkey for power, water and many food supplies. Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani has infuriated Turkey by refusing to act against the PKK. He has said his peshmerga fighters would resist any Turkish incursion.

Both the US and Iraq fear a major Turkish incursion into northern Iraq could destabilise the whole region. But Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's government is under heavy public pressure to take tough action, especially since Sunday's deaths.

Turkey, which has NATO's second biggest army, has deployed as many as 100,000 troops, backed by tanks, F-16 fighter jets and helicopter gunships, along the mountainous border in preparation for a possible large-scale strike. It is also straining US/Turkish relations which had been previously good.

Ankara blames the PKK for the deaths of more than 30,000 people since the group launched its armed campaign for an ethnic homeland in southeast Turkey in 1984.

News-South Korean Intelligence Admits Kidnapping Dissident

Source:AFP

South Korean Intelligence said on Wednesday that then-president Park Chung-Hee had approved the infamous 1973 kidnapping in Tokyo of dissident Kim Dae-Jung.

Kim Dae-Jung, who later ruled the country and won the Nobel Peace Prize and was awarded the Nobel prize in 2000 for laying the groundwork for inter-Korean reconciliation, was kidnapped by agents of the National Intelligence Service (NIS) predecessor, the Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) from a Tokyo hotel in August 1973.

He was taken to a ship and was about to be thrown overboard before his life was dramatically spared thanks to the intervention of US government authorities. The dissident was brought back to Seoul and put under house arrest for years.

The NIS report said Park began trying to curb Kim after the opposition leader almost defeated him in a 1971 presidential election. "As Kim Dae-Jung's political standing rose dramatically in the aftermath of the presidential poll, Park started considering Kim as the most serious obstacle to his plan to extend his presidency," the report stated.

South Korean ambassador Yu Myung-Hwan visited the Japanese foreign ministry in Tokyo on Wednesday to explain the findings to high-level officials. "It is extremely deplorable as it was a case involving a public authority's infringement against Japan. I want to see how the South Korean government is going to act" said Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda.

The probe was ordered by current President Roh Moo-Hyun and carried out by a civilian-led "truth committee." The truth committee called on the government to "make an official apology to Kim Dae-Jung for threatening his life and breaching his human rights."

The NIS also said North Korean agents had been responsible for the 1987 mid-air explosion of a Korean Airlines passenger jet over the Andaman Sea, which killed all 155 people aboard, in an incident that was one of the flashpoints in the Cold War.

NIS confirmed the plane was blown up by a time-bomb planted by North Korean agents.

Two North Korean agents were captured afterwards in Bahrain but the man committed suicide while his female companion was taken to Seoul. She later made a chilling confession that they blew up the plane on orders from Pyongyang to try to scare away foreigners from the 1988 Summer Olympics in Seoul.

Tuesday 23 October 2007

Comment-28 Day Extention

I commented on this on this subject on Iain Dale's Blogspot:

Iain,

Having just come back from living in the Netherlands, I find the whole debate regarding terrorism and security quite backward to say the least. It seems that British Society (including the Political elite) as a whole has not yet grappled with base principles:

-How does an open society deal with elements that are actively hostile to the established way of life and rule of law (the relationship between each other and between us and Government)?

-What balance should there be between individual rights and responsibilities?

-How do we aid the Police and Security Services to carry out their work without abuse any of power?

-Which is more important- social cohesion or individual rights?

Ed says its “Parliament's job is to protect our freedoms and liberties.” .This sounds like “passing the buck” and absolving themselves of their responsibility, because its everybody’s responsibility to ensure democracy is upheld. Sir Ian Blair said a couple of years ago “What type of police service do we want” yet nobody seems to answer that question in any meaningful way.

Where is the rational debate? Does anybody in the “Little Britain” actually understand the threat we face? Do we fully understand the consequences of modern technology, radical thinking (be it extreme left, right or a religiously inspired ideology) and violent action has on society as a whole?

To put it even more brutally do we comprehend the fact that somebody with Sixth Form Chemistry can make crude biological/chemical weapons and release it on a packed commuter train going to London?

Aum Shinrikyo understood this in Tokyo when they released home made Sarin. Islamic insurgents understand this with jerry rigged Chlorine Bombs in Iraq and other groups hostile to our way of life understand this to, perhaps they might even be working in the NHS…

Can we be so complacent regarding the ‘new reality’? The Dutch Intelligence Services released public papers on the destabilizing threat of Radical Islam within Dutch Society (which can be found on my blog)-has MI5 done the same?

The UK has the lowest participation in the democratic process in Western Europe, lower than even Iraq, yet we crow on about living in a ‘police state’. Who allows that to happen? Those who are engaged politically usually do so from a tub-thumping, tribal, dogmatic point of view from the prism of a self important media that can barely report beyond its shores, and when it does it is through a narrow minded viewpoint, making the ‘British’ even more ignorant of the outside world (far more than even America).

If ID cards, CCTV, extra security and the extension of the 28 day questioning won’t work then what will work?

There needs be a bi-partisan approach to Anti-Terror legislation, with a public fully engaged and informed not just on domestic terrorism, but its international aspects as well, with all its implications considered. I find all too often that 'informed opinion' is based on British Media (both from the left and right) which is dogmatic to say the least.

I'm not suggesting that the current administration has got it 'right', but I do find it astonishing that Conservative Commentary is against working with the Government when they themselves have introduced Anti-Terrorist Legislation that equally affected Civil Liberties when combating the IRA.

What is equally disappointing regarding the Conservative position is when it considered its ‘Broken Society’ policy that it did not consider the wider geo-political factors that fuel Islamic neo-Salafist militancy within Western Society.

And what of other wider questions-Does Anti-Americanism (which is rampant) damage the way Britian deals with future security threats and how America can provide us with help? Likewise the same with Europe?Are we going to be isolationist without any Allies?

The UK is engaged in a dogmatic debate based on wishy washy ideology. Perhaps not going through the trauma of the Sarin Gas attacks in Tokyo, Oklahoma Bombings, 9/11, or the assassination of key political figures as happend in The Netherlands has made Britain complacent? This is not to say that the 7/7 bombing were not a shock to the United Kingdom-clearly it was- but it seems to have none of the political effects that have caused other countries to become more considered and robust.

Too many kettles and pots for my liking in this 'debate'.

Monday 22 October 2007

US Forces Clash With Shia Militants-49 dead

Source:Voice of America/Global Security

The U.S. military says its forces have killed 49 militants during fighting in Baghdad's Sadr City district. A U.S. military statement said troops raided the Shi'ite militant stronghold Sunday morning to search for an insurgent involved with high-profile kidnappings funded by Iran,possbly involving Al Quds forces.

The statement said ground troops called in air strikes after being attacked with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. It said militants set off a roadside bomb as the troops left the area.

Iraqi officials said civilians were among those killed.Witnesses say two young children were killed in the fighting. The U.S. military says it killed "criminals" in the operation. Officers said they were not aware of civilians killed in the operation.

News-New Head of NRO Announced

Source:Defencelink

The Department of Defence (DoD) announced the appointment on the 19/10/07 of Scott F. Large as director of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), with the concurrence of the director of national intelligence.

Large served as the NRO's principal deputy director, and recently as the director of source operations and management in the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

Large joined the Central Intelligence Agency in 1986 and has held a variety of increasingly senior technical positions culminating as the associate deputy director for science and technology. He then moved back to the NRO to serve as the director of imagery systems acquisition and operations.

The NRO is a support agency tasked in providing imagery intelligence both for the CIA and the US military, it builds and operates the US’s reconnaissance satellites. It is funded through the National Reconnaissance Program, part of the National Intelligence Program.

Knowledge-Turkish National Intelligence Organization (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati--MIT)

Source:GlobalSecurity

Intelligence gathering is the primary responsibility of the National Intelligence Organization (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati--MIT), which combines the functions of internal and external intelligence agencies. In 1993 a career diplomat, Sonmez Koksal, was named undersecretary in charge of MIT, the first civilian to head the organization since the foundation of modern Turkey.
Each branch of the military has its own intelligence arm, as do the National Police and the gendarmerie. Military intelligence activities in martial law areas aim to prevent seditious activities against the state.

Intelligence operatives also engage in electronic eavesdropping and rely on reports of overseas military attachés and exchange information with foreign intelligence services.

Military and civil intelligence requirements are formulated by the National Intelligence Coordination Committee. This committee includes members of the staff of the National Security Council, to which it is directly responsible.

MIT like the British MI5 has no police powers; it is authorized only to gather intelligence and conduct counterintelligence abroad and to uncover communist, extreme right-wing and separatist--that is, Kurdish and Armenian--groups internally. The MIT chief reports to the prime minister but was in the past considered close to the military. The organization functions under strict discipline and secrecy. Housing and headquarters offices for its personnel are based in a compound in Ankara.

In the past MIT has been charged with failing to notify the government when it became aware of past plots, if not actual complicity in military coup attempts. Kurdish groups in Western Europe have charged the Turkish intelligence service with fomenting dissension and unrest among their various factions. Although these claims have not been verified, it seems likely that infiltration of the Kurdish separatist movement is a high priority for MIT. Members of the agency are also suspected of having acted as agents provocateurs in leftist organizations during the 1970s. Dev Sol is believed to have been infiltrated by intelligence agents, as raids on its establishments in the early 1990s seemed to demonstrate.

Knowledge-Who are the PKK?



Source:MIPT Database

Name: Partiya Karkeran Kurdistan (PKK)

AKA: KADEK, KHK, Kongra-Gel (KGK), Kongreya Azadi u Demokrasiya Kurdistan, Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress, Kurdistan People's Conference, The People’s Congress of Kurdistan

History: The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is a leftist Kurdish nationalist organization, founded in 1974 from the student/youth movement in Turkey. Led by Abdullah Ocalan, operated informally until 1978, when it formalized its agenda. Influenced by Maoist doctrine, the PKK's goal was to incite a revolution that would free the Kurdish people and establish an independent Kurdish state.

In 1980, prior to the military coup in Turkey, the PKK fled Turkey and established training camps in the Bekaa valley, part of Syrian-controlled Lebanon. By 1984, the PKK had initiated its first armed attacks in the Anatolia regions of Turkey. Reports claim that the PKK killed over 30,000 civilians within Turkey during the mid-80s including fellow Kurds who they believed they "collaborated" with the Turkish government. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, in an effort to win increased support from the Kurdish peasantry, the PKK altered its leftist secular ideology to better accommodate and accept Islamic beliefs.

During the early 1990s, the PKK continued its strategy of actively attacking Turkish government and tourist assets in an effort to destroy the Turkish military Government. In 1999, the PKK's leader, Abdullah Ocalan, was arrested in Kenya and extradited to Turkey, though convicted, Turkey abolished the death penalty in 2002, and his sentence was changed to life imprisonment after the original death sentence was called for. Following his arrest, Ocalan declared a unilateral cease-fire and announced his desire to establish a "peace initiative" with Turkey on Kurdish issues.

In 2002, the PKK changed its name to the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK), supposedly committing itself to non-violent activities. Despite the cease fire, the group continued its military training and planning and continues to threaten violence. In late 2003, the KADEK sought to engineer another political face-lift, renaming the group Kongra-Gel (KGK) (Kurdistan People's Congress) and brandishing its "peaceful" intentions, while continuing to commit attacks and refuse disarmament. The cease-fire with the Turkish government ended in the spring of 2004 and violence continued.

The group claimed responsibility for three ambushes of Turkish forces in early March 2006, alleged to be retaliation for the deaths of seven PKK members in February. The group is also suspected in several small bombings in early 2006, including a bombing in Ankara on March 8th that killed three people and injured eighteen. It is on the list of US Current List of Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

News-Pressure increases on Turkish Government to strike back against the PKK

A M60 MBT moving up to the Iraq/Turkish Border in prepration for a cross border strike.
Turkey was poised on Monday to strike against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq but will give Washington a few days to try to curb the separatists.

Turkey has deployed as many as 100,000 troops, backed by tanks, F-16 fighter jets and attack helicopters along its border with Iraq in anticipation of a possible incursion, however Defence Minister Vecdi Gonul said: "They are planning a cross-border (incursion) ... We'd like to do these things with the Americans."

Turkey estimates 3,000 rebels from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) are based across the border and a series of recent attacks on Turkish forces has put intense pressure on Prime Minister Erdogan to act.

Turkey believes U.S. forces could, capture PKK leaders in the Qandil Mountains, shut down their camps and cut off supply routes and logistics support. But Washington is hesitant as such moves could destabilise Iraq's Kurdish region and hurt the regional authority there if it looked as if it were siding with Turkey against fellow Kurds.

Gonul, speaking in Kiev after meeting U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates, said 17 soldiers were killed and 10 were missing. The Turkish losses, among the worst in a decade, came four days after parliament overwhelmingly approved a motion to allow troops to cross into northern Iraq.

Erdogan chaired a weekly cabinet meeting on Monday, which was expected to focus on the fighting and a possible incursion. He was due in London later on an official visit.

The Turkish lira currency fell three percent to 1.2360 against the dollar and the Istanbul stock exchange fell five percent early on Monday on concerns of a cross-border offensive. Turkey's tougher stance has helped propel global oil prices to record highs over the past week. The PKK has said it might target pipelines carrying Iraqi and Caspian crude across Turkey.

U.S. President George W. Bush on Wednesday urged Turkey not to launch a major incursion into northern Iraq. He spoke after Turkey's parliament approved by a large majority a government request to allow troops to cross into northern Iraq to crush Kurdish rebels based there. The United States fears a cross-border incursion could destabilize the most peaceful part of Iraq and potentially the wider region.

"We are making it very clear to Turkey that we don't think it is in their interests to send troops into Iraq," Bush told a news conference.

The PKK says eight Turkish soldiers were captured in the weekend fighting. Turkish media said more than 200 rebels were involved in the clashes on the Turkish side of the border.

Friday 19 October 2007

News-Putin Backs New Russian Intelligence Chief



Source:Reuters UK

President Vladimir Putin described the foreign spy service on Friday as one of Russia's key institutions and said the appointment of ex-Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov as its head could only enhance its authority.

Putin, himself a former KGB spy, is seen by some as a strongman who is strengthening both the military and intelligence services. Critics see this as further attempts to undermine democracy in Russia and maintaining control after he steps down next year.

"Fradkov's appointment as the director of the SVR (foreign intelligence service) underscores the important place foreign intelligence plays in the system of Russia's state institutions," Putin said.

"The SVR is one of the most professional and effective special services, which should continue defending Russia from outside threats,"

U.S. intelligence officials said earlier this year, that Russian spying in the United States had returned to Cold War levels. British intelligence has made similar statements. Putin, has done much to revive the security services as a privileged force not seen since the days of the KGB

Speaking to top intelligence officals on Friday, Putin said lack of spying experience was not a problem for Fradkov -- whose previous jobs were mainly connected with the economy. Putin said he wanted the SVR to help fight terrorism, but also expected Fradkov to build up efforts in economic espionage.

"The SVR should quickly and comprehensively analyze changes in the international economic environment, calculate the consequences for the national economy and of course protect more actively the interests of our companies abroad," he said.

Western analysts say installing personal allies in top positions is part of Putin's plan to maintain control over the country after he quits in May next year.

News-Senate Gives Approval Over New Wire-Tap Rules

Source: Reuters UK

Sen Chris Dodd votes against amended Wire-tap Bill


A U.S. Senate committee approved a bipartisan bill to tighten rules on government eavesdropping on terrorism suspects,

The Senate Intelligence Committee voted 13-2 for the measure, which Chairman John Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democrat, said strengthened national security and protected civil liberties. Mr. Rockefeller was quoted "It ensures that the unchecked wiretapping policies of the administration are a thing of the past"

Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Kit Bond, a Missouri Republican, called the Senate bill "a delicate arrangement of compromises."

The bill would allow wiretapping without a court order of suspected foreign terrorists, including when they call Americans. It would grant lawsuit immunity, demanded by the White House, for telephone companies that participated in a secret warrantless eavesdropping program launched by U.S. President George W. Bush after the September 11 attacks. The House bill would have required court approval when eavesdropping on terrorism suspects who might call Americans, and omitted the phone company immunity.

To safeguard civil liberties, the Senate bill would require a secret court to approve methods for targeting suspects and eavesdropping, more congressional oversight, and the removal of identifying information from intercepted calls involving innocent Americans. An amendment added during committee debate would require court approval to eavesdrop on the communications of an American overseas. The bill would expire after six years.

However a number of Democrats are prepared to ‘hold’ the Bill which could block the Senate vote. Presidential Candidate Sen. Chris Dodd (Connecticut); Sen. Ron Wyden (Oregon) and Sen. Russ Feingold (Wisconsin) voted against the committee's bill because of the immunity provision, despite winning passage of the amendment on Americans overseas.

News-New Zealand Anti-Terror Raids Spark Protests

Source:NZ Herald

On Monday New Zealand Police raided a number of ‘alternative’ lifestyle camps, in the Bay of Plenty on the North Island on suspicion of activities relating to terrorism as defined under the new Terrorism Suppression Act.

Seventeen people were arrested in initial raids around the country on Monday, and further raids have taken place throughout the week.

Dawn raids were executed at several properties in the Ruatoki Valley, including a tin shack where Tuhoe (A Maori Tribe) activist Tame Iti, a militant Maori Nationalist, was staying.

Police remained at the shack on Tuesday, conducting searches in tall grass outside, after earlier arresting Iti in relation to the suspected nationwide terror plot.

Police became aware of the group's activities last year, before they began their weapons training camps. Investigations began in earnest at the end of last year, said Acting Deputy Commissioner Operations, Jon White. "There have been several training camps over that passage of time. It is of considerable concern to us that people were attending training camps and engaging in what we believe to be unlawful activities, training and using firearms and other weapons as part of that training. That seemed to us to step over the line in terms of what would be acceptable”.

However this has caused a storm of protests with some sections in New Zealand-including some in the Maori Community.Dr Pita Sharples of the Maori Party was quoted as saying this would send Maori and Pakeha (white) relations back 100 years.

And trouble continued on Friday when an approximately 1000 protestors gathered in Whakatane with further smaller demonstrations taking place in Auckland and Wellington.

Information-Dutch Intelligence Observes ‘New Phase’ In Islamic Radicalisation

Source:AIVD website

The General Intelligence and Security Service of The Netherlands (Algemene Inlichtingen- en Veiligheidsdienst-AIVD) has recently issued an report into a new development in Islamic Radicalisation within the Netherlands that is bound to have implications within Europe-especially within Germany and the United Kingdom

The report titled ‘The radical dawa in transition’ the AIVD states in the report that “the dawn of the new phase of Islamic neo-radicalism is connected to a rapid expansion of a move within radical Islam, which is called ‘radical dawa’. In the Netherlands this movement especially shows itself in political salafism. The AIVD establishes that the radical dawa in the Netherlands and Europe is becoming more and more professional”.

“Despite its non-violent character, the radical dawa is an extremely intolerant and anti-democratic movement. Followers of the radical dawa strive for a large degree of isolation, combined with intolerance towards dissenters.”

“The AIVD emphasizes that the group of individuals which is sensitive and open to the radical Islamic message is growing. The AIVD also states, however, that the scope of present Muslim radicalism cannot be overestimated nor underestimated.”

The AIVD (previously known as the Binnenlandse Veiligheidsdienst, Domestic Security Service or BVD) was heavily criticised after the attacks on 9th September 2001 for not focusing on the Islamic fundamentalism movement and the extreme right-wing, concentrating instead on extreme left wing activities.

Subsequent revelations relating to the murder of Theo Van Gogh by Mohammed Bouyeri a member of the Hofstad Network has now seen a re-doubling of efforts, including research and an ‘academic’ approach as well as the counter-terrorist aspects to intelligence gathering and law enforcement.

The AIVD is now seen as one of the premier intelligence agencies working on the subject and is influencing thinking within Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United States.

For Futher Reading:

Radical Dawa in Transition
Violent Jihad in the Netherlands
From Dawa to Jihad
AIVD Report on Activities 2005

Information-Who Are The ISI?

Source:Global Security

The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] was founded in 1948 by a British army officer, Maj Gen R Cawthome, then Deputy Chief of Staff in the Pakistan Army. Field Marshal Ayub Khan, the president of Pakistan in the 1950s, expanded the role of ISI in safeguarding Pakistan's interests, monitoring opposition politicians, and sustaining military rule in Pakistan.

The ISI is tasked with collection of foreign and domestic intelligence; co-ordination of intelligence functions of the three military services; surveillance over its cadre, foreigners, the media, politically active segments of Pakistani society, diplomats of other countries accredited to Pakistan and Pakistani diplomats serving outside the country; the interception and monitoring of communications; and the conduct of covert offensive operations.

Staffed by hundreds of civilian and military officers, and thousands of other workers, the agency's headquarters is located in Islamabad. The ISI reportedly has a total of about 10,000 officers and staff members, a number which does not include informants and assets. It is reportedly organized into between six and eight divisions:

- Joint Intelligence X (JIX) serves as the secretariat which co-ordinates and provides administrative support to the other ISI wings and field organisations. It also prepares intelligence estimates and threat assessments.

- The Joint Intelligence Bureau (JIB), responsible for political intelligence, was the most powerful component of the organisation during the late 1980s. The JIB consists of three subsections, with one subsection devoted to operations against India.

- The Joint Counter Intelligence Bureau (JCIB) is responsible for field surveillance of Pakistani diplomats stationed abroad, as well as for conducting intelligence operations in the Middle East, South Asia, China, Afghanistan and the Muslim republics of the former Soviet Union.

- Joint Intelligence / North (JIN) is responsible for Jammu and Kashmir operations, including infiltration, exfilteration, propaganda and other clandestine operations.

- Joint Intelligence Miscellaneous (JIM) conducts espionage in foreign countries, including offensive intelligence operations.

- The Joint Signal Intelligence Bureau (JSIB), which includes Deputy Directors for Wireless, Monitoring and Photos, operates a chain of signals intelligence collection stations along the border with India, and provide communication support to militants operating in Kashmir.

- Joint Intelligence Technical

The Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee deals with all problems bearing on the military aspects of state security and is charged with integrating and coordinating the three services. Affiliated with the committee are the offices of the engineer in chief, the director general of medical service, the Director of Inter-Services Public Relations, and the Director of Inter-Services Intelligence.
In addition to these main elements, ISI also includes a separate explosives section and a chemical warfare section. Published reports provide contradictory indications as to the relative size of these organizational elements, suggesting that either JIX is the largest, or that the Joint Intelligence Bureau is the largest with some sixty percent of the total staff. The Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI) was the ISI's main international financial vehicle.

The ISI has become a state within a state, answerable neither to the leadership of the army, nor to the President or the Prime Minister. The result is there has been no real supervision of the ISI, and corruption, narcotics, and big money have all come into play, further complicating the political scenario. Drug money was used by ISI to finance not only the Afghanistan war, but also the proxy war against India in Punjab and Kashmir.

Futher Reading:

The ISI Role in Pakistan's Politics
Inter-Services Intelligence
ISI and its Chicanery in Exporting Terrorism
Role of the Military in Politics in Pakistan

NEWS- Islamist militants blamed for Bhutto attack

Source:Reuters

KARACHI - The Pakistan government blamed Islamist militants for twin blasts early on Friday that killed 133 people as opposition leader Benazir Bhutto drove through masses of supporters in Karachi.

Bhutto, travelling in a truck reinforced to withstand bomb attacks, was unhurt by the deadliest bomb attack in her country's violent history.
Army Chief General Musharraf condoled with his potential ally by telephone from Islamabad and they both "expressed their unflinching resolve to fight the scourge of extremism and terrorism", the president's spokesman Rashid Quereshi said. The grenade and suicide attack struck Bhutto's motorcade as it edged through hundreds of thousands of well-wishers who had stayed up late into the night to welcome the two-time prime minister back to Pakistan after years of self-imposed exile.

There was no claim of responsibility. But police were investigating whether the attack had links to tribal regions bordering Afghanistan which have become hotbeds of support for al Qaeda and the Taliban. Militants linked to al Qaeda, angered by Bhutto's support for the U.S. war on terrorism, had this week threatened to assassinate her, and officials said there were intelligence reports of plots by three separate groups.

"The first blast was caused by a hand grenade. The second was the suicide attack," said Manzoor Mughal, a senior police official. "The attacker ran into the crowd and blew himself up."Mughal said the head of the suspected bomber had been found, and it was estimated he had 15 to 20 kg of explosives strapped to his body. Typically, the upward force from a blast blows off the head an attacker.

Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, accused Pakistani intelligence agencies of involvement in the attack on his wife, a suspicion shared by many Pakistanis.