Today the Mainstream Media (MSM) has been waxing lyrical over the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) from the United States Intelligence Community saying that Iran is not and has not been building a nuclear weapon since 2003.
According to the BBC’s Paul Reynolds “the question of sanctions remains active because Iran is still defying Security Council calls for it to suspend uranium enrichment.”
However Justin Webb is his ‘analysis’ said “US hawks are horrified by the report.”
I’m glad Mr Webb in his highly paid job in Washington can add such gravitas to the story, perhaps he could do us a favour and actually clarify who these ‘hawks’ are and why are they 'horrified'?
If you read the BBC report, buried underneath the ‘outstanding reporting’ that is so typical of the BBC, the actual NIE report isn’t as ‘firm’ as the pundits in Television Centre like us to believe.
Before I launch into fisk mode, lets make one thing clear about anything to do with the subject of Intelligence Reporting and Gathering and how to ‘read’ them.
Intelligence reports of this kind,be it from The Director of National Intelligence from the National Intelligence Council or from the Joint Intelligence Committee here in the United Kingdom are couched in a language that is ambiguous and is open to interpretation, reflecting the very real world uncertainties that these people have to operate in. This is why it is called a National Intelligence Estimate.
Often you will see words or phrases like “we judge,”, “we assess”, ” we estimate”, “probably” very likely”,” we cannot dismiss",” we cannot rule out”,"we cannot discount” peppering all these documents to reflect the fact that intelligence gathering and reporting is by its very nature is an ‘art’ and not a 'science'.
Secondly the word “Confidence” is related to the quality of the information that the judgment is based on. “High Confidence” for an example means that the high grade information has also been verified or tested against other sources and as such is ‘reasonable’ to assume it is accurate. However a “High Confidence” judgment is not a fact or a certainty, however, and such judgments still carry a risk of being wrong. “Moderate Confidence” generally means that the information is credibly sourced and plausible,but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of “confidence”.
Finally it is important to bear in mind that the information that is being sought is often at the heart of an opponents defence planning and is guarded by counter-measures to disguise or mislead. These can range from physical security measures such as guards or placement in a secure environment like an underground bunker, electronic counter measures like firewalls or ‘roaming hackers’ through to counter-intelligence measures being run by the opponents intelligence network using all the tricks in the book like ‘false flag’ operations, ‘agents in place’ and other aspects of Human Intelligence (HUMINT), decoy documentation and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT).
The great military thinker Clausewitz stated as such in his seminal unfinished work On War:
“BY the word "Information," we denote all the knowledge which we have of the enemy and his country; therefore, in fact, the foundation of all our ideas and actions. Let us just consider the nature of this foundation, its want of trustworthiness, its changefulness, and we shall soon feel what a dangerous edifice war is, how easily it may fall to pieces and bury us in its ruins. For although it is a maxim in all books that we should trust only certain information, that we must be always suspicious; that is only a miserable book-comfort, belonging to that description of knowledge in which writers of systems and compendiums take refuge for want of anything better.”
Even in Iraq, today we are still uncertain on the scale and nature of Saddam’s WMD programme therefore when the likes of the BBC start running pieces like this, which totally fits in with their ‘group think’ alarms bells start ringing.
To quote from the Key Findings of NIE Report, it actually points out:
-We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities wereworking under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
- We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because ofintelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.)
- We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
- We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.
- Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determinedto develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously.
It adds later in the document some important caveats:
We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willingto maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely while it weighs its options, or whether it will or already has set specific deadlines or criteria that will prompt it to restart the program.
We assess with moderate confidence that Iran probably would use covert facilities—
rather than its declared nuclear sites—for the production of highly enriched uranium for aweapon. A growing amount of intelligence indicates Iran was engaged in covert uranium conversion and uranium enrichment activity, but we judge that these efforts probably were halted in response to the fall 2003 halt, and that these efforts probably had not been restarted through at least mid-2007.
We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.
So far from the blanket “Tehran has always maintained its nuclear programme is being developed purely for peaceful purposes.” It is far from clear what Iran is trying to do in its nuclear policy.
And the timing of the report is interesting, as I have already stated it was unlikely that the US was going to embark on any military options in 2008, due to the Presidential Elections, however if this NIE is ‘accurate’ then a choice might have to be made in 2009 or 2010. All this report does is default the decision until then.
By that time Hickory Dickory Clinton or Obama might be in charge……
Tuesday 4 December 2007
The NIE And The Media
Thursday 22 November 2007
25 Million Names Lost From HMRC
Just following up on the 25 Million Name Data-set that has been ‘lost’, it seems that my spider sense was tingling last week.
John has covered all the basis with his usual skill in his piece here ,however the gift of ‘second sight’ came to the fore when we first highlighted in our piece on the HMRC and its problems were first shown here although Nick Robinson has the e-mails here .
Just to recap, BBC-B looked at the HMRC who are now around like a blind man as can be shown on this link although the FAQ's isn’t going to settle any nerves.
We examined at length how the Lyons Review and the subsequent restructuring including the regionalisation of offices (moving everything North in other words) has compromised the internal integrity of HMRC in order to shore up votes for the Labour Party, a process started by John Prescott and Gordon Brown.
We looked in detail the relationship between off shore company Mapeley , Capita and Capgemini has almost total to the HMRC,and how the ‘snouts in the trough’,with their panache for cutting courners have damaged National Security.
But the real questions remain as the walls close in on ‘King Brown and his goons, and yet again the BBC have been found wanting.
One has to ask how many false tax credits have been handed out over the years as well?
Why are staff hired on short term contracts? Why are some of them foregin nationals?
Why is the central database in Worthing being shut down and moved to Washington in the North East when staff are already overstreched?
My ‘spider sense’ tells me that the dataset will be ‘found’ in some Government building and there will be no doubt that we will get a statement saying ‘Don’t panic, everything is alright’, however the whole story smells of corruption.
In the meantime the data set probably In the meantime the data set has been copied and sent to ‘unhealthy’ interested parties. This is the biggest failure of security in modern times. This is the probable reason why Gus Macdonald was issuing out Civil Service gagging orders OVER TWO months ago to HMRC employees regarding internal matters.
I spoke to somebody who works in the field of sensitive information in another EU country but has worked in the UK.After the laughter at our incompetence subsided my contact told me “You might as well handed over your nuclear secrets because the structures and ‘culture’ in the UK Government is so oblique looking you are like a bucket full of holes when it comes to information storage’. My contact went further and said ‘The problem you guys have is the civil service is so politicised that they are all looking over their shoulders to cut cost and appease their bosses”
Spin and leak in other words.
This isn't a problem just for the UK but now is an additional problem worldwide.
The implications are very grave, the fact that Al Qaeda’s main source of revenue is now credit card fraud and identity theft makes them likely customers for this information. Likewise Organized Crime (who works hand in glove with terrorism) now has the possibility of applying for mortgages or bank loans using false identities-they only time you become aware of this is when your bank account is being debited for that villa in the Cayman Islands.
This isn’t simply a case of ‘loosing’ the data-the whole integrity of National Security has been thrown away because of a politically motivated piece of gerry-mandering set up by the man with the shaking hand and bunker mentality.
What is worse the same jokers are also involved in PFI projects involving Met Police and the Security Services. I fear more revelations are to come involving the Civil Service.
This is why tonight you are being treated with stories about millionaires kicking a ball around and not the indepth reporting that this sorry tale needs.
Friday 16 November 2007
News: Democrats Defeat Wire-Tap Amendment
Source: From Reuters
U.S. House of Representatives voted on Thursday, defying President George W. Bush,passing a bill tightening legal oversight of the power of intelligence agents to use wiretaps to eavesdrop on terror suspects.
The vote in the Democratic-led House was 227-189, largely along party lines.The bill now heads to the Senate for consideration. If it passes both chambers, the White House has threatened to veto the measure, warning it would hamper electronic spying efforts, subjecting the United States to increased risks.
White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said the bill "fails to give our intelligence community the tools it needs, and it fails to protect companies facing massive lawsuits for allegedly stepping up and answering the nation's call for help after the 9/11 terrorist attacks."
House Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer defended the measure, saying, "This legislation gives our intelligence community the tools it needs to listen in on those who seek to harm us while addressing concerns that (a Bush-backed) bill passed in August could authorize warrantless surveillance of Americans."
Democrats rejected Bush's demand for retroactive immunity for any telecommunications company that may have taken part in the warrantless domestic spying program begun after the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001.
The White House said it was prepared to work with Congress on a possible compromise bill that "would strengthen the nation's intelligence capabilities while respecting the constitutional rights of Americans."
The 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) requires that the government receive the approval of a secret FISA court to conduct surveillance in the United States of suspected foreign enemy targets.Shortly after the September 11 attacks, Bush secretly authorized warrantless surveillance of communications between people in the United States and others overseas if one had suspected ties to terrorists.
The legislation would replace a previous law passed in August under fierce pressure from the administration that expanded the powers of the US intelligence services to use wiretaps in global terror probes.A warrant would be needed only if the American was a target.Nearly 40 lawsuits have been filed accusing AT&T, Verizon and Sprint Nextel Corp of violating Americans' privacy rights in helping the government's warrantless domestic spying program.
News: US Courts Pour Cold Water On Wire-Tap Case
Source: AP
A federal appeals court dealt a near-fatal blow Friday to an Islamic charity's lawsuit alleging it was illegally wiretapped by federal investigators, saying that a key piece of evidence the charity planned to use is a protected state secret.
The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled unanimously that a top secret call log accidentally turned over to the now-defunct U.S. arm of the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation's lawyers by the U.S. Treasury Department can't be used as evidence.
Al-Haramain, which was labeled by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization, alleged it had been illegally wiretapped by the Bush administration without a warrant.
The charity's lawyers voluntarily turned over the document to FBI agents after it was given to them.The appeals court said that ruling was "a commendable effort to thread the needle," but still ran counter to the state secrets law, which precludes the disclosure of sensitive information in court that could jeopardize national security.
"Such an approach countenances a back door around the privilege and would eviscerate the state secret itself," Judge M. Margaret McKeown wrote for the unanimous three-judge panel.
News:Lieutenant General Bill Rollo Gives His View On Progress In Iraq
Source: MOD News
Lieutenant General Bill Rollo is the Senior British Military Representative to Iraq and Second in Command of the Coalition forces gave his views to MOD News.
When asked about the troop reductions in Iraq, the Lieutenant General said:
"The force numbers are a result of careful analysis of the troops required to carry out tasks that we anticipate doing next summer. But everything is subject to events, and if they are different to what we currently anticipate, we will do something else."
He also added regarding any 'differences' within the coalition and with General Petraeus command in particular:
"Our plans are fully coordinated with the US. I've found that General Petraeus is always very conscious of his allies. He is prepared to go the extra mile to ensure that our respective interests are taken on board. From a personal and professional level, it works very well."
"I think the surge, together with the change in attitude of the Sunni population, has had a very substantial effect on security across Iraq. It's designed to enable political and economic progress, and the challenge for the Iraqis and us is to make use of the opportunity. Dynamics are different in the south. There is no Sunni insurgency and the provinces face low level intra-Shia violence and criminality. The best people to deal with both are the Iraqis."
With the situation in Basra uncertain and the rise of the power of the milita's, and the the cleric's the he stated:
"There are fundamentalists in Basra, but the Iraqi security forces are gradually exerting their own control. Traditionally Basra was a relatively open society. It may return to that tradition.There are a lot of pressures on the secular society and Iraq is in a period of acute social trauma and instability. But I see no reason why elements of that secular society won't re-establish themselves."
With regard to the future,and the calls to withdraw troops from Iraq he was measured but seemed to put cold water on the idea:
"You can't live here, as I do, and travel around without being conscious of the severity of the challenges facing Iraq. Nevertheless, when I go out, I come back encouraged, as I see, slowly and unevenly, the country coming back to life."
"I think the surge, together with the change in attitude of the Sunni population, has had a very substantial effect on security across Iraq. It's designed to enable political and economic progress, and the challenge for the Iraqis and us is to make use of the opportunity. Dynamics are different in the south. There is no Sunni insurgency and the provinces face low level intra-Shia violence and criminality. The best people to deal with both are the Iraqis."
"It can be intensely frustrating for soldiers, who are working hard to make a difference – and doing so. But we're not the first British soldiers to be in this position and I doubt we'll be the last."
Troops levels are expected to drop to 4,400 in April with a review to drawdown to 2,500 later in the year.
News: British Soilders Foil Suicide Bomb Attack
Source MOD News
British soldiers serving in southern Afghanistan have foiled a suicide car bomber who attempted to attack their patrol as they were returning to base.
The incident, which lasted a matter of seconds, happened as the soldiers, from 473 Special Observation Post Battery, 5 Regiment Royal Artillery, were heading back to the camp in Gereshk.A white Toyota Corolla, which contained a suicide car bomber, suddenly pulled out and attempted to drive into their convoy of Pinzgauer vehicles.
The first Pinzgauer swerved to avoid the car and the top cover sentry, Corporal Lee Wilbor, fired a single shot through its window, causing the driver to collapse at the wheel. But the Toyota carried on, swerving erratically into the path of the rear vehicle, whose soldiers opened fire causing the car to veer out of the way before it dramatically exploded.
This incident was announced during the week when Captain John McDermid of The Royal Highland Fusiliers, 2nd Battalion The Royal Regiment of Scotland, killed by a roadside bomb in Sangin.
News:British Troops Push North Into Musa Qaleh
Source: MOD News
British troops launched an offensive on the 14th and have pushed forward into the area around the Taliban stronghold of Musa Qaleh.
The town of Musa Qaleh, located in the north of Helmand Province, was taken by ISAF forces in the autumn of 2006 and handed over to the control of local Afghan's.
Local Afghan's held the town for 143 days before the Taliban launched an offensive, retook the town.
Marines from 40 Commando and soldiers from Right Flank Scots Guards using Warrior and Mastiff Armoured Vehicles are back on patrol in the area outside the town, and are conducting aggresive patrols.
Lieutenant Colonel Richard Eaton explained the latest planned offensive:
"This is part of a longer term strategy to keep the Taliban unsettled and confused. We have frustrated them in what they consider to be their heartland by manoeuvring into the area, and by disrupting their resupply and other operations."
He added
"It is also crucial to be able to tell local Afghans, ‘ISAF is here at the invitation of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to support you and that we are going to help remove the Taliban from your homes and your lives'."
He summed up the operation:
"The Taliban are not wanted in Musa Qaleh, something the local Afghans have made clear before and we will continue to maintain a presence in the area to show them that they have the support of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and ISAF."
This latest operation began two weeks ago with Bravo Company from 40 Commando Royal Marines pushing north in Viking armoured vehicles, driving across the Helmand river north of Sangin, creating a bridgehead for the Scots Guards convoy.
According to reports there have been on and off contact with the Taliban who have attacked British forces with rockets, mortars and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs).
British troops have been carrying out reconnaissance patrols in an effort to carry out "hearts and minds" operations as well as conducting aggresive patrols.
The patrol is supported by soldiers from B Squadron Kings Royal Hussars in Mastiff armoured vehicles and by 105 mm guns served by men from 4 Regiment Royal Artillery. The patrol is supported by an Immediate Replenishment Group and additional supplies are flown in by air as and when required. The operation is at Battlegroup level and is being commanded by 40 Commando.
News:Coalition Forces Establish Presence West of the Euphrates
Source: BlackFive.net
Operation Marne Courageous kicked off in the early morning of Nov. 16 with more than 600 coalition forces and Iraqi army soldiers moving into two villages near the border of Anbar province to drive out al-Qaida in Iraq.
Soldiers of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), were joined by about 150 Iraqi army soldiers in the air assault on the Sunni villages of Owesat and al Betra, west of the Euphrates River and approximately 15 miles southwest of Baghdad.
Troops were transported in four helicopter lifts across the Euphrates, utilizing two CH-47 Chinook helicopters and eight UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters. A Marine reconnaissance platoon, as well as Soldiers of the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, stationed in neighboring Anbar province, secured the landing zone.
Troops were transported in four helicopter lifts across the Euphrates, utilizing two CH-47 Chinook helicopters and eight UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters. A Marine reconnaissance platoon, as well as Soldiers of the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, stationed in neighboring Anbar province, secured the landing zone.
Once on the ground, the U.S.-Iraqi force was supported by an air weapons team of Apache and Kiowa helicopters, while approximately 70 Iraqi Concerned Local Citizens assisted in securing the outlying perimeter.
While U.S. and Iraqi forces moved through the villages, other troops set to work constructing a bridge across the Euphrates to allow for the transport of materials and supplies to build a patrol base in the area. The base will allow for a sustained coalition presence in the area of Owesat, part of Baghdad’s southwestern “belts.”
Marne Courageous’ main strategic thrust is to clear AQI extremists from the area of Owesat, establish a coalition presence, and develop a concerned citizens program in the area as a bulwark against further enemy activity.
Thursday 8 November 2007
Why The BBC Does Not Take Defence Coverage Seriously
From BBC Politics
It says something when the BBC sends somebody with the experience of Caroline Wyatt on defence issues to cover something as significant as the formation of the UK National Defence Association then produces a report that makes it sound like another pressure group.
It is telling that they could have sent somebody like Mark Urban who has served in the Armed Forces and is a respected Defence journalist but they didn't, instead they send a relatively junior correspondent who's expertise is selling the BBC propaganda. The point of the matter is that for years the BBC has done its best to smear and downplay the role of the Armed Forces.
The BBC have had a direct hand in the smashing of the military covenant between the British Military and the British People.Remember Gilligan? Remember the Northern Ireland coverage in the 1970's and 1980's?Remember the airplay for the Greenham Common Wimmin?
But the NDA not just another pressure group of ‘snouts in the trough’ vested interest policy wonks.Take a look at some of the names who are behind the National Defence Association membership.
According to Caroline “The establishment of the UKNDA can be seen as a sign of the growing gulf between ministers and some in the military over the course of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
It is of course nothing of the sort but a group that seeks to educate the public on military affairs, to seek to re-establish the covenant between the British Military and the British People and to address the woeful lack of spending on defence.
Of course we can always contrast and compare the National Defence Association expertise with the BBC's favorite think tank on defence matters-The Oxford Research Group.
Even when it comes down to ‘facts’ the BBC is very selective in it figures.It shows here a graph comparing warmongering America and poor little Iran.
The graph shows in ‘real terms’ of defence spending the US which towers above everybody else, however they have seemed to have forgotten that Defence Spending is also measured against the GDP, figures in which I can provide:
The Dollar per GDP expenditure figures is here.
The Dollar per GDP percentage figures is here.
Military Spending per Capita figures is here.
That’s right-Oman spends more on defence spending, with the United States at 4.06 % ranking 27th and the UK coming 69th with 2.4%–being overtaken by mighty world powers like Lesotho, Solomon Islands, Guinea Bissau and the Maldives.Then we wonder why the Brown fiefdom is failing the Armed Forces?
Of course the NDA has no SWP stockpuppets as part of its membership, so don't count on too much coverage any time in the future.
THE BBC-Spinning figures and providing puff pieces for the anti-military left-this is what we do
Comment:Why the Left Wing Chattering Classes Cannot Be Trusted With Democracy.
This is the first in a series of articles exploring the links between some elements of the ‘peace’ movement, the far left and foreign intelligence.
While delving through the archives of the Internet-I came across an interesting article buried deep within the BBC.
Vic Allen is a retired Leeds University professor and a former leading member of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), from Keighley, North Yorkshire. He told a BBC Two documentary in 1999 that said he had "no regrets" over providing information to the East German Stazi secret police.
He said he considered that perfectly “legitimate” because he belonged to a pro-Soviet, pro-East German faction of the group.
Dr Robin Pearson (Codename Armin) was another academic at Hull University who was used by the Stazi as a recruiter and an agent of influence. According to his handler Berhart Kartheus he “began spying on his fellow British students - reading their dissertations and looking for clues to their politics, as well as supplying the names of former students who got sensitive jobs at NATO and the Ministry of Defence.”. In autumn 1982, he took a job in London where the Stasi is alleged to have asked him to get to know women at the Ministry of Defence.
The highly respected academic on intelligence matters Anthony Glees said “It is quite clear that he was regarded as a long-term bet, alongside Kim Philby and had the Berlin Wall not fallen, he undoubtedly would have been in a position to have done great harm and to have put many people in harm's way."
A former colleague of mine in Amsterdam who was living in East Germany at the time , who’s own family suffered at the hands of the Ministry of Interior, told me after she read her own Stazi file that her family was monitored because of information given to them by ‘informers’ in the West . Her own father was ‘questioned’ by the secret police for three weeks not only because he listened to Voice of America and the BBC World Service but most of all because he had links to ‘peace activists’ in the West. This story is repeated time and again by many who lived under the shadow of the hammer and sickle.
One has to imagine with horror how Dr Pearson and Dr Allen helped the oppressive Eastern Bloc countries in maintaining their regimes of terror. Yet they have never been charged with their crimes.
When one looks at the list of people who would either overthrow the political system in the West or would be traitors to their fellow countrymen, one cannot help but notice a connection.
Let me list some names and you will get the picture: Philby (Codename: Stanley); Blunt (Codename Johnson) ;Burgess (Codename: Hicks); MacLean (Codename: Homer) ; Cairncross, Harry Houghton, Ethel Gee, Gordon Lonsdale; Melita Norwood (Codename: Hola), Tom Driberg MP (Codename: Lepage), Raymond Fletcher MP -all ‘cleaver people’ and ‘artistic people’ willing to sell there souls to the men with the rubber batons in East Germany, Poland or the Soviet Union, all of whom were privileged people who’s arrogance literally killed people.
The in ‘arts’ there have been many voices that have seek to accommodate themselves with despotism and dictatorships-look at the Bloomsbury Group. (and the perennial favorite of the feminist left Virginia Woolf,) and there attitudes towards the Second World War, in particular while the Nazi-Soviet Pact was in effect, and their attitude towards “the proles” in general. John Maynard Keynes himself was friends with many of the “Cambridge Five” and a member of the Apostles; he was close most notably with Kim Philby and Guy Burgess. Other members of this social circle included several other “idealists” including Lytton Strachey, G.E. Moore and Rupert Brooke.
It was none other than George Orwell said what he thought of the left wing ‘peace movement’:
"Pacifism is objectively pro-fascist. This is elementary common sense. If you hamper the war effort of one side, you automatically help out that of the other. Nor is there any real way of remaining outside such a war as the present one. In practice, he that is not with me is against me.”
It has been suggested by many historians of the Cold War that CND’ s change of policy in the late 1960’s from ‘multilateralism’ to ‘unilateralism’ was ‘helped’ in no small part by the Stazi and KGB after it recognised the success of the Committee of 100. It is rumored that Bruce Kent was possibly an unwitting ‘agent of influence’ by the Stazi, a claim which he is ‘untrue’. Leading members of the Labour Party are thought to mentioned in the Stazi archives but remain hidden by the German Government due to their political nature and possible embarrassment to the Government.
Beyond this there has been the work of the Workers' Revolutionary Party (UK) under the leadership of Gerry Healy from the 1950’s to the 1980’s. When he conducted his ‘purge’ of the ‘less educated’ members of ‘his’ party in the late 1970’s the leading Inquisitor was none other than Vanessa Redgrave who it is alleged ‘questioned’ one poor woman (against her will) for being a ‘closet capitalist’. She herself has paid £50,000 in December 2002 to bail Akhmed Zakayev the Chechen separatist leader to come and live in the UK. This act and the subsequent Alexander Litvinenko poisoning has encouraged the Russian Government to step up its espionage and military activities towards the UK in particular, to the extent that MI5 now has to channel resources to cover this activity rather than concentrate on Islamic fundamentalism.
But it does not stop there. The WRP and fellow travellers positively identified themselves with both the Saddam and Gaddafi Governments in an expressed policy of supporting ‘Arab Nationalism’ without any conditions. That Baathism is based on fascism is over looked by the Trotsky left of the WRP.
In the early 1980’s the BBC’s Money Programme accused the WRP of receiving money from Jamahiriya el-Mukhabarat (Libyan Intelligence) including a possible £1,000,000 that had been received by the group from Libya and several Middle Eastern governments, between 1977 and 1983.The left wing publication Solidarity claimed also that the WRP was also involved in monitoring anti Saddam protestors and taking pictures back to the Iraqi Embassy in London to be examined by IIS in the 1980’s. The WRP also had sympathies with the IRA and INLA as well as other ‘anti-capitalist’ groups such as the Rote Armee Faktion, Japanese Red Army, ETA, the Red Brigades in Italy and our very own Angry Brigade.
Then there is”Respect - The Unity Coalition”. George Galloway needs no introduction, being a firm friend of Saddam Hussein and a possible benefactor of the Oil for Food programme but it is interesting to note that fellow travellers within Respect are Ken Loach , Harold Pinter, George Monbiot and Salma Yaqoob who are also high brow members of the intelligentsia and the cultural elite. Ironically the extremist group al Ghurabaa a takfiri group now banned in the UK has threatened Respect members and it believed in security circles that these prominent left wingers may themselves be a target of the extremists that they have so far sought to provide political cover.
That they seem so blind and so willing to get into bed with fascists (although the brown skinned ones to give a sheen to their politically correct dogma) shows the utter stupidity of their claims to be ‘progressive’ and ‘radical’ while at the same time their panache for infighting over the finer points of left wing ideology is breathtaking. Time and again these people glamorise the violence that they supposedly oppose, for example Ken Loach and his admiration for the leftist wing of the IRA in the 1920-21 Irish Civil War (see the film ‘The Wind that Shakes the Barley’).That they are all wealthy people who should know better seems to escape the likes of the BBC, who regularly promotes them.
All of the above have been involved in the Stop the War Coalition and CND , the two organisations that have a ‘patchy’ track record regarding their democratic credentials. Although there are some members of these organisations who are genuine anti-war advocates, I suspect that Mr Pinter, Ms Redgrave or Mr Galloway is not seeing the violent language that they regularly use with policies they don’t agree with, especially their poisonous Anti Americanism . That they keep ‘unhealthy’ company is the subject of these essays.
Not only should the Government be subject of public scrutiny but so should the opposition. Sadly for too long the ‘peace movement’ has been largely exempt from this scrutiny because many independent journalists, artists and academia are afraid of being ostracised from their peers in the left wing. That recruitment for extremist ideologies takes place in schools and colleges, and that the chattering classes seem to turn a blind eye is not acceptable in any democracy. It is now time to address this issue.
This is the first in a series of investigative pieces looking into the peace movement and possible links with foreign intelligence services and anti-democratic movements. The Wikipedia entries are for general reading but for further links and references see:
Hallas, Duncan. Cult comes a cropper
Healy, Gerry. Some Reflections on the Socialist Labor League
Higgins, Jim. Suppose He Had Been Enthusiastic: Review of Harry Ratner, Reluctant Revolutionary
Pitt, Bob. The Rise and Fall of Gerry Healy
North, David. Behind the split in the Workers Revolutionary Party
W.P.Snyder, The Politics of British Defense Policy, 1945-1962,
Christopher Driver, The Disarmers: A Study in Protest
Monday 5 November 2007
News:President Musharraf Promises To Hold Elections
Source: Reuters
The Pakistani government said on Monday it would hold a national election by mid-January, as it came under pressure from the United States for imposing emergency rule and detaining lawyers and opposition politicians.
U.S. President George W. Bush, who values Musharraf as an ally in his battle against al Qaeda and the Taliban, called for a quick return to civilian rule and the release of hundreds of detainees rounded up since Saturday.President Pervez Musharraf's decision to suspend the constitution and purge the Supreme Court has unleashed a torrent of international criticism.
Attorney General Malik Abdul Qayyum told Reuters "It has been decided there would be no delay in the election and by November 15, these assemblies (national and provincial) will be dissolved and elections will be held within the next 60 days."
Some Pakistanis believe Musharraf's main motive in declaring emergency rule was to pre-empt the Supreme Court's ruling on his re-election.But security has deteriorated since July, when commandos stormed Islamabad's Red Mosque to crush an armed Islamist movement. Since then nearly 800 people have been killed in militant-linked violence, half of them by suicide attacks,including the attack on Benazir Bhutto.
Qazi Hussein Ahmed, leader of the main Islamist opposition party, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), was taken into custody on Monday. Authorities had already rounded up 600-700 JI supporters in southern and central provinces overnight.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Musharraf should quit the army and become a civilian leader, and hold the elections as scheduled.The United States put future aid to Pakistan under review, having provided $10 billion in the past five years, and postponed defence talks with Pakistan due this week.Britain also warned Pakistan on future funding.
News: Sen Edwards A 'Preventative War Doctrine' Is 'Ridiculous And Dangerous'
However he failed to expand on his alternative policies in the debate.
News:Director General Speaks of a Need For Continued Perseverance
Source: MI5 Website
Jonathan Evans, the Director General of the Security Service, gave a speech at the Society of Editors' conference in Manchester on 5 November 2007 in which he provided an update on the terrorist threat and spoke about the need for perseverance and strategic thinking in the continuing fight against international terrorism.
Mr. Evans highlighted the need to protect young people from radicalisation and indoctrination by violent extremists.
Mr Evans said "The violence directed against us is the product of a much wider extremist ideology, whose basic tenets are inimical to the tolerance and liberty which form the basis of our democracy. So although the most visible manifestations of this problem are the attacks and attempted attacks we have suffered in recent years, the root of the problem is ideological."
He expanded further his view by saying "Because the ideology underlying Al Qaida and other violent groups is extreme. It does not accept the legitimacy of other viewpoints. It is intolerant, and it believes in a form of government which is explicitly anti-democratic. And the more that this ideology spreads in our communities, the harder it will be to maintain the kind of society that the vast majority of us wish to live in."
Following his predecessor, Eliza Manningham-Buller comments regarding about the increased threats by Al Qaida inspired terrorists in which she identified around 1,600 individuals who MI5 believed posed a direct threat to national security and public safety, Mr Evans now said that figure today would be at least 2,000.
He focused his speech on the growth of the 'Al Qaida franchise' including Somalia and a new grouping called 'Al Qaida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb' based in North Africa.
He also remarked on the unfortunate diversion of key resources away from vital counter-terrorist work by ongoing Russian espionage activity in the UK.
For further information on his key note speech you can read more on Address to the Society of Editors by the Director General of the Security Service, Jonathan Evans
Saturday 3 November 2007
News:US said to give 'green light' to wide-scale IDF operation in Gaza
Take this one with a pinch of salt, as the original source is a Lebanese newspaper. I find the idea of the Israelis going cowering to their American masters for a "green light" to do anything, to be preposterious and right out of the Arab paranoid fantasy mindset. Israel, remember, doesn't even have a Gitmo - they send out an Apache helicopters instead for pre-emptive targetted assassinations, irrespective of what the U.S. thinks about it.
But still, there could be a grain of truth in it, in terms of Israel sharing intelligence and gearing up in order to stop Qassam rocket attacks.
From the Jerusalem Post:
The United States has given a "green light" to an IDF operation in the Gaza Strip, the Lebanese newspaper, Al-Akhbar reported Saturday morning. The report cites "credible diplomatic sources" as saying that American approval came after Israeli intelligence impressed on US officials the importance of a wide-scale operation as an answer to the unprecedented arms smuggling within Gaza.
According to the newspaper report, the intelligence was shared during Defense Minister Ehud Barak's last visit to Washington. Sources told Al-Akhbar that the intelligence depicted a worrying picture of an "arms race" between Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. In addition, Israel presented details of money transfers between the Islamic Jihad and the Al-Aksa's Martyrs Brigades.
Read the rest of it here
Friday 2 November 2007
Comment: The trouble with facing and reporting facts
I am forced to pay my licence fee for this crap? I want information: facts and detail. Instead I get another poorly written article that seemingly the BBC struggled to type, as it pains them that the US are in fact succeeding with aspects of the campaign in Iraq, "The Struggle for Iraq" as the BBC have disingenuously called it, but that's another article altogether!
To start with, why the quotes in the title? "Deaths in Iraq 'continue to fall'" - it's not an attributable quote and it isn't conjecture; it's fact. I'm 'getting fed up' with the BBC's overuse of sodding quotes for emphasis, it automatically introduces a slant of suspicion to their reporting. If I want opinion I will read blogs or the comment sections within the media. When I go to read the news, I want the news. Impartial, balanced and detailed news. Instead I get this rubbish.
There is no single reliable source for statistics but a number agree on a marked improvement, correspondents say.
Really? Well CNN provide a reliable source, the Iraqi Government no less:
The number of Iraqi civilians killed in September was 844, down from 1,990 in January, according to Iraqi governmental figures provided to CNN.
Source: CNN
And they're hardly known for their Iraq support, yet they can muster up the courage to name their source. Indeed the LA Times is quoting the source directly as the Iraqi Health Ministry, not that difficult is it?
But what's this a few paragraphs below?
AFP news agency quoted interior, defence and health ministry data as saying at least 554 Iraqis were killed and the bodies of another 333 people who may have been killed in previous months were found.
Oh look! There it is - the source after all! So either the BBC is inept in it's writing or deliberately misleading. Most probably both. Furthermore, the figures look pretty exact; would 554 or 333 be used if they were just unreliable estimates? I think not. So the lack of reliable sources for the statistics is essentially bollocks.
The BBC's Jim Muir Baghdad says different sources do have different casualty figures for October but they all agree that the number of Iraqis killed by violence was again at a much lower level, as it had been in September.
What a coincidence having the town of his posting as his surname! The BBC editorial team seem to have been too busy working out how to put a negative slant on this article than to worry about the basics of grammar. The small yet important point of this is that standards need to be upheld.
I digress, back to the article itself:
Our correspondent says one question is whether the improvement is a predictable temporary result of the surge that might be reversed when the US military starts drawing down troops.
"Predictable temporary result"? Sounds as if they almost want it to end! Notwithstanding the fact that this is the objective of the surge is it not? And yes it may well be reversed when they finish the surge, but it would be hoped by that point that the Iraqi army will be able to fill the gap and continue to reduce troubles. I don't believe the correspondent realises that in trying to attack the strategy he is in fact advocating it's continuation.
Now I don't know how much they pay their correspondent, but I sure as hell hope it isn't a great deal...
However, our correspondent says despite the improved figures, bombings and shootings happen somewhere in Iraq every day.
Well whaddya know?! Did I just read that right? I cannot believe they have the nerve to state the aboslute bloody obvious. I'm glad they did 'cos 'til tonight I thought things were all peachy over there...
News: The Litvinenko Case Points the Way For Dealing With Radiological Weapons
Source: AFP
The British Medical Journal (BMJ) in a new report has reported how the authorities should handle the threat of radiological attacks in the light of the murder of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko, poisoned by polonium 210.
Following established procedure the Journal said by being swift, clear and factual in telling the public about what had happened and about the risks from the highly radioactive element used in the killing, the British authorities were able to stem any panic or stigma
The article is due out next Saturday shows research from James Rubin of the Institute of Psychiatry who sampled ,000 phone interviews with Londoners and 86 interviews with Londoners who had been potentially exposed to the polonium. Of those interviewed, only 11.7 percent believed that their health had been at risk. Sixty-two percent said they believed they had been well informed.
In a commentary also carried by the BMJ, University of Alabama public health professor Steven Becker noted the results would have been different if people had perceived the incident as a terrorist attack rather than a targeted murder.
"In a large-scale terrorist attack involving radioactive materials -- a 'dirty bomb', for example-- levels of public concern could be dramatically higher," said Becker. "Indeed, in a terrorist incident involving radioactive materials, effective risk communication may be the most important way to reduce morbidity and mortality, tackle people's concerns, avoid the impact on behaviour, and maintain public trust and confidence,"
Litvinenko, a Russian exile with British citizenship, was killed after his tea was poisoned at a central London hotel on November 1 last year. He died three weeks later in hospital. The subsequent investigation has lead to theory of a Moscow backed killing, with the prime suspect being named as former KGB agent Andrei Lugovoi.
There is now a distinct cooling of relations between Britain and Russia, with a tip for tat diplomatic exchanges and an increase of flights by the Russian Airforce to test UK defences.
Tuesday 30 October 2007
Comment:Extraordinary Rendition-Is there an ethical case?
With Hollywood giving its ‘verdict’ on the ‘War on Terror’ I thought it might be high time to take a closure look at ‘Extraordinary Rendition’ and canvas opinion on what libertarian and centre right thinking is.
In fact the practice of Extraordinary Rendition is nothing new. The British Government often carried out kidnappings in the Republic of Ireland against key IRA personnel who had escaped legal rendition. The US first documented usage was against the hijackers of the Achille Lauro in 1985, with a US Navy jet forcing down a flight to land at Naval Air Station Sigonella and then rendered the hijackers to the United States. Other states that have also used this power are: China, South Korea, Russia, North Korea, Cuba, France, Israel and a number of Middle Eastern and African countries.
Many countries have also benefited from the intelligence that has been gained from the interrogation of prisoners that have been captured under extra judicial kidnappings including the EU and its institutions (the main Governmental critics of the US use of ER.)
What is often forgotten is that the Clinton Administration first brought in the law as this rather revealing piece by Richard Clark, counter-terrorism czar in the Clinton and Bush Administrations shows:
“‘Extraordinary renditions’ were operations to apprehend terrorists abroad, usually without the knowledge of and almost always without public acknowledgement of the host government…. The first time I proposed a snatch, in 1993, the White House Counsel, Lloyd Cutler, demanded a meeting with the President to explain how it violated international law. Clinton had seemed to be siding with Cutler until Al Gore belatedly joined the meeting, having just flown overnight from South Africa. Clinton recapped the arguments on both sides for Gore: Lloyd says this. Dick says that. Gore laughed and said, 'That's a no-brainer. Of course it's a violation of international law, that's why it's a covert action. The guy is a terrorist. Go grab his ass.'”
Richard Clarke, Enemies pp143–4
One can’t help thinking that this is the same Al Gore that has just got a Nobel Peace Prize.
Since 9/11 The Bush administration has increased its usage and allowed prisoners to be removed to black sites-covert sites where it is alleged torture is used to extract information.
The arguments FOR the use of Extraordinary Rendition are powerful:
The country where a suspect is held might be linked to the terrorist group and beyond the ‘normal’ reach of legal and diplomatic channels. For example capturing wanted war criminals in Serbia, Bosnia or Croatia
It may well be an advantage to interrogate a prisoner in his own country of origin where s/he would be familiar with the language, customs and a tradition of that country for example Al Qaeda uses Middle Eastern operatives.
The intelligence gained would not only benefit the nation rendering the capture, but the domestic intelligence agency carrying out the interrogation and third parties.
The ‘ticking bomb’ scenario. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethical_arguments_regarding_torture
To prevent unnecessary press intrusion that may effect how a case is prosecuted
The arguments AGAINST are equally powerful:
There is no legal or ethical oversight
It may well damage the reputation and relationship between the parties
The action itself may be dangerous or can expose the country carrying out the action to unwanted press and media attention if it becomes a failed operation.
The intelligence gain may not reflect the cost and effort put into the operation
It is again ‘international’ agreements and laws
Rather than lay out an argument, here is a scenario in which we can ponder:
A ‘war criminal’ takes refuge in country X and is granted diplomatic protection and is considered a ‘rogue state’. Country Y wants to prosecute the individual for war crimes and Country Z wants information on intelligence on weapons shipments including chemical transfers and nuclear material that might be in the hands of terrorists. As leader of Country Z would you authorize the use of Rendition-especially if Country Y uses torture to extract information and confessions?
Unlike Pallywoods ‘cardboard cutout world’ these are real world problems. Do you have a duty to protect your country or do you remain ethical and uphold international law? Will people die at a later date because of your inaction? Will the press find out? Will it cause diplomatic problems? Will you loose the greater battle of ‘hearts and minds’?
Friday 26 October 2007
News:Rice Stands By Sanctions On Iran
Source:Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Friday defended expanded U.S. sanctions on Iran.
"The international community cannot just sit idly by until we face unpalatable choices. A nuclear weapon in the hands of the Iranian regime would be deeply destabilizing in the world's most volatile region," she told the NBC ‘Today’ show.
The United States on Thursday slapped new sanctions on Iran and accused its Revolutionary Guard of spreading weapons of mass destruction. However President Vladimir Putin criticized the move, saying it would force Tehran into a corner over its nuclear program.
Ms Rice acknowledged that Washington and Moscow had some disagreement over tactics and timing regarding Iran, but she said the two countries shared the same basic goal of a non-nuclear Iran.
Some U.S. allies and Democratic critics of President Bush's policies say Washington is being too bellicose.
Knowledge: Who Are Al Qods And The Baseej?
Source:GlobalSecurity
The Pasdaran has maintained an intelligence branch to monitor the regime's domestic adversaries and to participate in their arrests and trials. The Baseej (volunteers) come under the control of the Revolutionary Guards. The Baseej allegedly also monitor the activities of citizens, and harass or arrest women whose clothing does not cover the hair and all of the body except hands and face, or those who wear makeup.
During the year ending in June 1995, they reportedly "notified 907,246 people verbally and issued 370,079 written notices against ‘social corruption’ and arrested 86,190 people, and also broke up 542 ‘corrupt gangs’, arresting their 2,618 members, and seized 86,597 ‘indecent’ videocassettes and photographs.
The Ashura Brigades force was reportedly created in 1993 after anti-government riots erupted in various Iranian cities and it consists of 17,000 Islamic militia men and women. The Ashura Brigades are reportedly composed of elements of the Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran) and the Baseej volunteer militia.
In August 1994, some Pasdaran units, rushed to quell riots in the city of Ghazvin, 150 km. west of Tehran, reportedly refused orders from the Interior Minister to intervene in the clashes, which left more than 30 people dead, 400 wounded and over 1,000 arrested.
Subsequently, senior officers in the army, air force and the usually loyal Islamic Revolutionary Guard reportedly stated that they would no longer order their troops into battle to quell civil disorder.
The foreign operations by the Guardians, which also encompass the activities of Hizballah and Islamic Jihad – are usually carried out through the Committee on Foreign Intelligence Abroad and the Committee on Implementation of Actions Abroad. The Qods (Jerusalem) Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is responsible for extraterritorial operations, including terrorist operations. A primary focus for the Qods Force is training Islamic fundamentalist terrorist groups.
Currently, the Qods Force conducts training activities in Iran and in Sudan. The Qods Force is also responsible for gathering information required for targeting and attack planning. The Pasdaran has contacts with underground movements in the Gulf region, and Pasdaran members are assigned to Iranian diplomatic missions, where, in the course of routine intelligence activities they monitor dissidents. Pasdaran influence has been particularly important in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
The largest branch of Pasdaran foreign operations consists of approximately 12,000 Arabic speaking Iranians, Afghans, Iraqis, Lebanese shi’ites and North Africans who trained in Iran or received training in Afghanistan during the Afghan war years. Presently these foreign operatives receive training in Iran, Sudan and Lebanon, and include the Hizballah ["Party of Allah"] intelligence, logistics and operational units in Lebanon.
The second largest Pasdaran foreign operations relates to the Kurds (particularly Iraqi Kurds), while the third largest relates to the Kashmiri’s, the Balouchi’s and the Afghans.
The Pasdaran has also supported the establishment of Hizballah branches in Lebanon, Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan and Palestine, and the Islamic Jihad in many other Moslem countries including Egypt, Turkey, Chechnya and in Caucasia.
The Office of Liberation Movements has established a Gulf Section tasked with forming a Gulf Battalion as part of the Jerusalem Forces. In April 1995 a number of international organizations linked to international terrorism -- including the Japanese Red Army, the Armenian Secret Army, and the Kurdistan Workers' Party -- were reported to have met in Beirut with representatives of the Iraqi Da'wah Party, the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain, Hizballah, Iran's "Office of Liberation Movements," and Iran's Guardians of the Revolution.
In January of 2002 - Israeli forces seized a Tonga-registered vessel, and found onboard 83 canisters - which were hidden in crates and among other cargo - and filled with 50 tons of weapons - including surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank mines. Intelligence reports indicate the likely involvement of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in facilitating this large arms transfer to other terrorist groups.
Although Iran detained al-Qaida operatives in 2003, it refused to identify senior members in custody. Tehran continued to encourage anti-Israel activities, both operationally and rhetorically, providing logistic support and training to Lebanese Hizballah and a variety of Palestinian rejectionist groups.
Shortly after the fall of Saddam Hussein, individuals with ties to the Revolutionary Guard may have attempted to infiltrate southern Iraq, and elements of the Iranian Government have helped members of Ansar al-Islam transit and find safehaven in Iran. In a Friday Prayers sermon in Tehran in May 2003, Guardian Council member Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati publicly encouraged Iraqis to follow the Palestinian model and participate in suicide operations against Coalition forces.
Anonymous sources in the Israeli defense establishment said that Iranian involvement in terrorism in the occupied territories has increased. These activities mostly are run through Hizballah in Lebanon and, between 2002 and 2004 Hizballah had tripled or even quadrupled the scope of its operations in the territories. The threat to Israel from rockets provided to Hizballah by Iran and Syria has grown, both in range and quantity.
Also See SPECIAL AND IRREGULAR ARMED FORCES in IRAN - A Country Study (Library of Congress Federal Research Division)
Knowledge: Who Are The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp?
Source:GlobalSecurity
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or Pasdaran was formed following the Islamic Revolution of 1979 in an effort to consolidate several paramilitary forces into a single force loyal to the new regime and to function as a counter to the influence and power of the regular military.
The 125,000 strong Revolutionary Guard secures the revolutionary regime and provides training support to terrorist groups throughout the region and abroad. Both the regular military [the Artesh] and IRGC are subordinate to the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL).
Although the IRGC operates independently of the regular armed forces, it is often considered to be a military force in its own right due to its important role in Iranian defense. The IRGC consists of ground, naval, and aviation troops which parallel the structure of the regular military. From the beginning of the new Islamic regime, the Pasdaran (Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Islami, or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or Revolutionary Guards) functioned as a corps of the faithful. Its role in national security evolved from securing the regime and eliminating opposition forces to becoming a branch of the military establishment.
As a means of countering the threat posed by either the leftist guerrillas or the officers suspected of continued loyalty to the shah, however, Khomeini created the Pasdaran, designated as the guardians of the Revolution.
History
Initially the Pasdaran was planned as an organization that would be directly subordinate to the ruling clerics of the Revolution. By September 1980, the Pasdaran was capable of deploying forces at the front. Initially, the forces were sent to conduct operations against Kurdish rebels, but before long they were deployed alongside regular armed forces units to conduct conventional military operations. Despite differences, the Pasdaran and the regular armed forces have cooperated on military matters.
Since 1979 the Pasdaran has undergone fundamental changes in mission and function. Some of these changes reflected the control of the Islamic Republican Party (IRP) (until its abolition in 1987) over both the Pasdaran and the Crusade for Reconstruction. Others reflected the IRP's exclusive reliance on the Pasdaran to carry out certain sensitive missions. The Pasdaran, with its own separate ministry until 1989, evolved into one of the most powerful organizations in Iran. Not only did it function as an intelligence organization, both within and outside the country, but it also exerted considerable influence on government policies. In addition to its initial political strength, in the course of several years the Pasdaran also became a powerful military instrument for defending the Revolution and Islamic Iran.
The Pasdaran was also given the mandate of organizing a large people's militia, the Basij, in 1980. It is from Basij ranks that volunteers were drawn to launch "human wave" attacks against the Iraqis, particularly around Basra.
The first operations commander of the Pasdaran was Abbas Zamani (Abu Sharif), a former teacher from Tehran. The Pasdaran was quite active in Lebanon. By the summer of 1982, shortly after the second Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Pasdaran had nearly 1,000 personnel deployed in the predominantly Shia Biqa Valley. The Pasdaran's alleged involvement in anti-American terrorism in Lebanon remained difficult to confirm.
From modest beginnings, the Pasdaran became a formidable force. Under the command of Mohsen Rezai, the Pasdaran became large enough to match the strength of the regular military. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in 1986 the Pasdaran consisted of 350,000 personnel organized in battalion-size units that operated either independently or with units of the regular armed forces. In 1986 the Pasdaran acquired small naval and air elements, and it has claimed responsibility for hit-and-run raids on shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Although little was known about the Ministry of the Pasdaran, its intelligence-gathering operations, and its relationship with SAVAMA, several reports speculated that the Pasdaran maintained an intelligence branch to spy on the regime's adversaries and to participate in their arrests and trials. Khomeini implied Pasdaran involvement in intelligence when he congratulated the Pasdaran on the arrest of Iranian communist Tudeh leaders
With the abolition of the IRP in 1987, observers were uncertain whether the Pasdaran would continue to enjoy unlimited support from high-ranking clerics. Its power base remained strong in 1987, with the continuing support of Khomeini and other religious authorities. Having eliminated armed leftist groups such as the Mojahedin and the Fadayan, the Pasdaran had fulfilled all IRP expectations .Staunchly religious, nationalistic, and battle-trained since 1980, the Pasdaran had emerged as a critical force in determining Iran's national security strategy. In a post-Khomeini era, the Pasdaran could wield enormous power to approve or disapprove governmental changes.
The IRGC's active involvement in domestic politics began following Ayatollah Khomeini's death in 1989. Using the experience it gained in carrying out large projects during the war with Iraq, the corps has become a force in Iran's economy by launching numerous companies. Many of these enterprises receive lucrative government contracts and are active in the agriculture and oil sectors, on road and dam construction, and in automobile manufacturing. In addition, former IRGC commanders run the Oppressed and Disabled Foundation, an extremely powerful and wealthy organization that takes care of underprivileged Iranians.
In the 1990s some IRGC commanders denounced then-President Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani's political, social, and economic reforms as damaging to the values of the revolution. Following the 1999 student riots, some hard-line elements of the IRGC warned Khatami that his reforms were endangering the revolutionary order and that the IRGC could not stand by and watches as the fruits of the revolution were destroyed. As a result, these IRGC officers said, they essentially had no alternative than to intervene to uphold the interests of the Islamic regime. In a letter to Khatami, 24 IRGC commanders stated that they would take the law into their own hands unless the president cracked down on demonstrators.
By 2005 the IRGC's long reach into political affairs was increasingly apparent. Iran's parliament included about 80 former IRGC members, while other former members command the regular army and the national police. Still more occupy important civilian and government positions, such as municipal councilors, mayors, provincial governors, university professors, and businessmen. And possibly most significant, none other than the country's new president -- Mahmud Ahmadinejad -- served with the IRGC during the Iran-Iraq War.
In many respects that structure of the Pasderan has similarities to other Para-military organisations throughout history with its encroachment into the nation. It serves in a similar manner as the KGB in the Soviet Union and the SS Nazi Germany-having the characteristics of a state within a state.
Comment:US & Iran-The Ticking Time Bomb
Source:FAS and BBC Middle East
“Iran has responded defiantly to new sanctions imposed by the US targeting Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and three state-owned banks.”
The BBC in it ‘analysis’ regards the latest bout of US diplomatic pressure on the Iran as another step towards war.
In its article the BBC seems to regard the latest moves by the US administration as ‘hostile’ devoting much of its piece towards the Iranian response. According to The BBC correspondent in Tehran, Jon Leyne, says the sanctions could be very damaging for Iran economically. The Revolutionary Guards are thought to control around a third of the country's economy, including car factories, newspapers and oil and gas fields.
Indeed they may well do but it will also strengthen the IRGC control over the Government.
This 'anti-war' and 'anti-American' view is echoed by the “commentary” on HYS-the BBC’s own interactive website mainly by the increasingly anti-American British
“On the day that Bush asks the world to help overthrow Communism in Cuba (again), and sanctions are announced against Iran for - just maybe, possibly - wanting to acquire 3 or 4 of what Israel's got 200+ of, and the USA's got 7000+ of, perhaps it's time for the rest of the World to just stop listening to arrant hypocrisy disguised as righteousness”
“Iran has caused the deaths of many USA and UK soldiers in Iraq.
Paul Butler, Reading, United Kingdom
Where is the proof? Are you going to start thinking for yourself and making your own judgment, or simply echo the un-proven assumptions coming from War loving generals and politicians for yet another disaster in the region (which by the way, this time, its going to be the real cause of death of thousands of US/UK soldiers)? I say we have caused enough misery for that region, lets get out!!”
Such ‘populist’ opinion (at the moment) seems to be missing some obvious points-as those more familiar with Iran will understand. The fact Iran is not hiding its ambitions and could be in a period known as a ‘transition to war’:
-The IRGC has now being purged of all ‘suspect elements’ and is now taking the leading edge in ‘strengthening’ Iranian defences.
-The capture of Al Quds personnel by Iraqi, British, American security forces in the last year.
-The recent display of Shehab-3 (Range 1280 KM/800 Miles) confirms that Iran has now significant Ballistic Missile capability. Western analysis also believes the Shehab-5 and Shehab-6 (based on North Korea’s Taep'o-dong-2 Range: 4,000-4,300 Km) may also be on-line although there is no firm information yet.
Shehab3 and 3b SLBM on recent display in Tehran (Source:FAS)
-The recent crackdown on ‘pro-Western’ and ‘anti-social elements’ within Iraq by Baseej Security Forces.
-The rationing of petrol and other non-essential materials
-The provocation by the IRGC during the ‘Frightened 15’ episode.
-The continuing non compliance with the IAEA inspections.
-The 10 day ‘Great Prophet’ Exercise in November 2006 with test launches of SLBM's
Objectively Iran is preparing for some sort of military confrontation, either with Israel or the Western Alliance. The one calculation that seems to be overlooked is the Iran is well aware of the political and psychological problems within the West’s key players-the US and the UK.
The US is currently starting its electoral process with Democrats and Republicans neither wishing to get involved further in a military confrontation with all the uncertainty that goes with that. Further more the Bush Administration is winding down and has used it’s up its political capital on Iraq and Afghanistan.
The British Government is in a period of flux,with Brown in a weak position,and with the self inflicted wound of Intelligence Debarcle, coupled with the prevalent anti-American mood by some sections of the public and media has left the UK in no mood for more military activity.It hasn’t got the military or political capital to do so although British Forces in theatre are directly threatened.
Israel is still licking its wounds after it apparent ‘defeat’ by Hezbollah and only France seems to be moving in the direction of a more robust position.
The IRGC will be more than aware of this-it is possible that there may well be a dramatic escalation during the Presidential Race. It cannot also be discounted that the recent attacks by the PKK may well involve Al Qods forces providing logistic and intelligence support, Turkey being a main ally of Isreal in the region.
The irony is that it may not be President Bush who needs to confront the final showdown that started with 9/11-but the very critics who have been grandstanding. Let’s hope they have a policy to deal with it or the Middle East will be very quite for the next 500 years.
Source:FASWednesday 24 October 2007
Turkey Attacks PKK Positions Inside Iraq
Source:Reuters
Turkish warplanes and troops attacked Kurdish rebels inside Northern Iraq this week, security sources said on Wednesday.
Turkey moved more troops to the mountainous border, keeping up pressure on the Iraqi Government to honour promises to crack down on an estimated 3,000 rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) who use the region as a base.
"Further 'hot pursuit' raids into northern Iraq can be expected, though none have taken place so far today (Wednesday)," a military official said. "We are reinforcing our troops near the border at Silopi and Uludere with men drawn from other parts of the country,"
Thirty four PKK rebels were killed in the sorties and all Turkish troops involved in the operations were now inside Turkey. Turkish military sources claimed.
But Abdul Rahman Jaderji, a PKK spokesman in northern Iraq, told Reuters there had been no direct fighting between the two sides since clashes on Sunday in which 12 soldiers were killed.
However Ankara wants to hold back from any major incursion for now to give diplomacy a chance. The Turkish official described as a "final chance" for diplomacy a planned visit by an Iraqi delegation to Ankara on Thursday. At Turkey's request, the team will be headed by Iraqi Defence Minister General Abdel Qader Jassim. It will also include Iraq's National Security Minister Shirwan al Waeli.
"The prime minister has indicated this meeting could produce economic sanctions, for example, cutting off electricity to northern Iraq or the closure or slowing down of traffic at the Habur border gate," said Suat Kiniklioglu, an AK Party spokesperson said
Northern Iraq depends heavily on Turkey for power, water and many food supplies. Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani has infuriated Turkey by refusing to act against the PKK. He has said his peshmerga fighters would resist any Turkish incursion.
Both the US and Iraq fear a major Turkish incursion into northern Iraq could destabilise the whole region. But Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's government is under heavy public pressure to take tough action, especially since Sunday's deaths.
Turkey, which has NATO's second biggest army, has deployed as many as 100,000 troops, backed by tanks, F-16 fighter jets and helicopter gunships, along the mountainous border in preparation for a possible large-scale strike. It is also straining US/Turkish relations which had been previously good.
Ankara blames the PKK for the deaths of more than 30,000 people since the group launched its armed campaign for an ethnic homeland in southeast Turkey in 1984.
News-South Korean Intelligence Admits Kidnapping Dissident
Source:AFP
South Korean Intelligence said on Wednesday that then-president Park Chung-Hee had approved the infamous 1973 kidnapping in Tokyo of dissident Kim Dae-Jung.
Kim Dae-Jung, who later ruled the country and won the Nobel Peace Prize and was awarded the Nobel prize in 2000 for laying the groundwork for inter-Korean reconciliation, was kidnapped by agents of the National Intelligence Service (NIS) predecessor, the Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) from a Tokyo hotel in August 1973.
He was taken to a ship and was about to be thrown overboard before his life was dramatically spared thanks to the intervention of US government authorities. The dissident was brought back to Seoul and put under house arrest for years.
The NIS report said Park began trying to curb Kim after the opposition leader almost defeated him in a 1971 presidential election. "As Kim Dae-Jung's political standing rose dramatically in the aftermath of the presidential poll, Park started considering Kim as the most serious obstacle to his plan to extend his presidency," the report stated.
South Korean ambassador Yu Myung-Hwan visited the Japanese foreign ministry in Tokyo on Wednesday to explain the findings to high-level officials. "It is extremely deplorable as it was a case involving a public authority's infringement against Japan. I want to see how the South Korean government is going to act" said Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda.
The probe was ordered by current President Roh Moo-Hyun and carried out by a civilian-led "truth committee." The truth committee called on the government to "make an official apology to Kim Dae-Jung for threatening his life and breaching his human rights."
The NIS also said North Korean agents had been responsible for the 1987 mid-air explosion of a Korean Airlines passenger jet over the Andaman Sea, which killed all 155 people aboard, in an incident that was one of the flashpoints in the Cold War.
NIS confirmed the plane was blown up by a time-bomb planted by North Korean agents.
Two North Korean agents were captured afterwards in Bahrain but the man committed suicide while his female companion was taken to Seoul. She later made a chilling confession that they blew up the plane on orders from Pyongyang to try to scare away foreigners from the 1988 Summer Olympics in Seoul.
Tuesday 23 October 2007
Comment-28 Day Extention
I commented on this on this subject on Iain Dale's Blogspot:
Iain,
Having just come back from living in the Netherlands, I find the whole debate regarding terrorism and security quite backward to say the least. It seems that British Society (including the Political elite) as a whole has not yet grappled with base principles:
-How does an open society deal with elements that are actively hostile to the established way of life and rule of law (the relationship between each other and between us and Government)?
-What balance should there be between individual rights and responsibilities?
-How do we aid the Police and Security Services to carry out their work without abuse any of power?
-Which is more important- social cohesion or individual rights?
Ed says its “Parliament's job is to protect our freedoms and liberties.” .This sounds like “passing the buck” and absolving themselves of their responsibility, because its everybody’s responsibility to ensure democracy is upheld. Sir Ian Blair said a couple of years ago “What type of police service do we want” yet nobody seems to answer that question in any meaningful way.
Where is the rational debate? Does anybody in the “Little Britain” actually understand the threat we face? Do we fully understand the consequences of modern technology, radical thinking (be it extreme left, right or a religiously inspired ideology) and violent action has on society as a whole?
To put it even more brutally do we comprehend the fact that somebody with Sixth Form Chemistry can make crude biological/chemical weapons and release it on a packed commuter train going to London?
Aum Shinrikyo understood this in Tokyo when they released home made Sarin. Islamic insurgents understand this with jerry rigged Chlorine Bombs in Iraq and other groups hostile to our way of life understand this to, perhaps they might even be working in the NHS…
Can we be so complacent regarding the ‘new reality’? The Dutch Intelligence Services released public papers on the destabilizing threat of Radical Islam within Dutch Society (which can be found on my blog)-has MI5 done the same?
The UK has the lowest participation in the democratic process in Western Europe, lower than even Iraq, yet we crow on about living in a ‘police state’. Who allows that to happen? Those who are engaged politically usually do so from a tub-thumping, tribal, dogmatic point of view from the prism of a self important media that can barely report beyond its shores, and when it does it is through a narrow minded viewpoint, making the ‘British’ even more ignorant of the outside world (far more than even America).
If ID cards, CCTV, extra security and the extension of the 28 day questioning won’t work then what will work?
There needs be a bi-partisan approach to Anti-Terror legislation, with a public fully engaged and informed not just on domestic terrorism, but its international aspects as well, with all its implications considered. I find all too often that 'informed opinion' is based on British Media (both from the left and right) which is dogmatic to say the least.
I'm not suggesting that the current administration has got it 'right', but I do find it astonishing that Conservative Commentary is against working with the Government when they themselves have introduced Anti-Terrorist Legislation that equally affected Civil Liberties when combating the IRA.
What is equally disappointing regarding the Conservative position is when it considered its ‘Broken Society’ policy that it did not consider the wider geo-political factors that fuel Islamic neo-Salafist militancy within Western Society.
And what of other wider questions-Does Anti-Americanism (which is rampant) damage the way Britian deals with future security threats and how America can provide us with help? Likewise the same with Europe?Are we going to be isolationist without any Allies?
The UK is engaged in a dogmatic debate based on wishy washy ideology. Perhaps not going through the trauma of the Sarin Gas attacks in Tokyo, Oklahoma Bombings, 9/11, or the assassination of key political figures as happend in The Netherlands has made Britain complacent? This is not to say that the 7/7 bombing were not a shock to the United Kingdom-clearly it was- but it seems to have none of the political effects that have caused other countries to become more considered and robust.
Too many kettles and pots for my liking in this 'debate'.
Monday 22 October 2007
US Forces Clash With Shia Militants-49 dead
Source:Voice of America/Global Security
The U.S. military says its forces have killed 49 militants during fighting in Baghdad's Sadr City district. A U.S. military statement said troops raided the Shi'ite militant stronghold Sunday morning to search for an insurgent involved with high-profile kidnappings funded by Iran,possbly involving Al Quds forces.
The statement said ground troops called in air strikes after being attacked with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. It said militants set off a roadside bomb as the troops left the area.
Iraqi officials said civilians were among those killed.Witnesses say two young children were killed in the fighting. The U.S. military says it killed "criminals" in the operation. Officers said they were not aware of civilians killed in the operation.
News-New Head of NRO Announced
The Department of Defence (DoD) announced the appointment on the 19/10/07 of Scott F. Large as director of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), with the concurrence of the director of national intelligence.
Large served as the NRO's principal deputy director, and recently as the director of source operations and management in the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
Large joined the Central Intelligence Agency in 1986 and has held a variety of increasingly senior technical positions culminating as the associate deputy director for science and technology. He then moved back to the NRO to serve as the director of imagery systems acquisition and operations.
The NRO is a support agency tasked in providing imagery intelligence both for the CIA and the US military, it builds and operates the US’s reconnaissance satellites. It is funded through the National Reconnaissance Program, part of the National Intelligence Program.
Knowledge-Turkish National Intelligence Organization (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati--MIT)
Source:GlobalSecurity
Intelligence gathering is the primary responsibility of the National Intelligence Organization (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati--MIT), which combines the functions of internal and external intelligence agencies. In 1993 a career diplomat, Sonmez Koksal, was named undersecretary in charge of MIT, the first civilian to head the organization since the foundation of modern Turkey.
Each branch of the military has its own intelligence arm, as do the National Police and the gendarmerie. Military intelligence activities in martial law areas aim to prevent seditious activities against the state.
Intelligence operatives also engage in electronic eavesdropping and rely on reports of overseas military attachés and exchange information with foreign intelligence services.
Military and civil intelligence requirements are formulated by the National Intelligence Coordination Committee. This committee includes members of the staff of the National Security Council, to which it is directly responsible.
MIT like the British MI5 has no police powers; it is authorized only to gather intelligence and conduct counterintelligence abroad and to uncover communist, extreme right-wing and separatist--that is, Kurdish and Armenian--groups internally. The MIT chief reports to the prime minister but was in the past considered close to the military. The organization functions under strict discipline and secrecy. Housing and headquarters offices for its personnel are based in a compound in Ankara.
In the past MIT has been charged with failing to notify the government when it became aware of past plots, if not actual complicity in military coup attempts. Kurdish groups in Western Europe have charged the Turkish intelligence service with fomenting dissension and unrest among their various factions. Although these claims have not been verified, it seems likely that infiltration of the Kurdish separatist movement is a high priority for MIT. Members of the agency are also suspected of having acted as agents provocateurs in leftist organizations during the 1970s. Dev Sol is believed to have been infiltrated by intelligence agents, as raids on its establishments in the early 1990s seemed to demonstrate.
